you should also look up don johnson, i feel like its the most similar to options trading.
(the answer I posted to your question in a different thread)
The probability analogy between blackjack and trading is a huge stretch. It's true that playing probabilities in blackjack and poker do confer an edge in these games, but Tom seems to forget that in trading, the cards don't have a static value. In other words, while an ace and a ten is always a blackjack, in the markets that's not always true. In the markets, the decks change and the value of cards also change, sometimes day to day, some other times cycle to cycle.
Sometimes, investors applaud good news and buy. Other times, good news is interpreted as bad news, and they sell. And once in a while, something out of the left field happens and everything changes.
So, in practice, if you go down the option chain, and see that $ 56 strike in 30 % out of the money. Price distribution dictates those probabilities, but then Putin declares war on Ukraine, a pipeline blows up somewhere, or some pyscho guns down 10 guys in Time Square, and you have been dealt a whole new deck with zero aces, and 56$ moves from 30% out of the money to 100% in the money in a flash. Or suddenly, economic factors, earnings, or support and resistance have no value to investors, the only thing that matters now is the FED. Again, a different deck with different probabilities from the previous cycle. It becomes similar to playing blackjack and every time you pull an ace and a ten you don't know if it's a blackjack, or the house started assigning a value of 2 to the Ace, and you end up with 12 instead.
It's very fluid in the markets.
