dollar strengthening against Euro?!?!?

I apologize if it sounded as though I was "harrassing" you.

Most traders on this forum are intraday. Therefore, taking that type of position in the morning would have hurt them tremendously, hence my comment about regret.

If your timeframe is more, than great. I hope it doesn't hit your tolerance for a stop loss. Incidently, how large of a stop loss do you place?
 
I agree with the longs in principle, but the timing (daily) is off, and it may be too soon price wise. I would like to see a 1.2920-38 as far as price is concerned, and as far as time, I see the start of the retrace between the 18-23 of this month. But then again ?????



The Ever Venomous Viper
 
I have to update my previous USD speculation, my timeframe was off, so, here it is 9/03-04/06 starting at a price around 1.2870. Its a new strategy, so it ain't quite ready for prime time.

The ever adventurous VIPER
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

A lot today does not make sense to me, namely the drop in the Euro.

I bought 50k euros after the fed announcement at 1.28750 and now the value is almost 1 penny less. What gives?

I would've only expected this behavior after a rate tightening.
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The market doesn't care what our analysis is. It will do what is does, whenever it wants, despite what we traders think. Our jobs (just like warfare) is to prepare for any contingency and react accordingly. I can't count the number of times some news or central bank report should have pushed the market a certain direction logically, but alas the market started to behave contrary to my preconcieved notions and started to crush my positions. I have learned to trust (news, reports, central banks) but VERIFY! (market direction). If the market doesn't behave right after news, get out quickly so that you can fight another day. This just my personal opinion but the central banks manipulate. If that means suckering the masses with a certain news item or report, so be it. Your only defense is to have a plan, and if things don't act right, take it as a hint and bail your positions(s). You can always get back in if it's a solid move or redo your analysis and go the other direction if warranted.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

With that said, I fundamentally believe this weak dollar policy will eventually sink in the the dollar/euro price.

When I asked myself today whether I thought they would pause or raise rates, my gut said they would pause - since everything done in connection with this Bush administration seems short sided and some form of placation. And that, fundamentally, leads to a devalueing dollar.

From the overeasing of rates from Greenspan years again to placate 'tough' times from the tech bubble pop, allowing a housing bubble to easily occur, to the response now ... just one word again, placation (for the housing market especially)

Now I know my opinion doesn't equate to trading strategy, perhaps its more detrimental to it. But this is a long position, and I can't imagine the dollar strengthening off this news. Any other response seems superficial and likely profit taking for the previous round of long traders.

My explanation: perhaps the USD bears haven't woken up yet.
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It goes way beyond this my friend. A dollar fall to the depths of where it should be at, is bad for the global economy. All those foreign nations (China, Japan, Middle East friends) holding more US treasurys than all the US citizens combined tends to make it hard for the market to take it's natural path. Hell, if I was holding billions of Greenbacks and loaning Uncle Sam the interest on what I already loaned him, I might get together in a back smoky room and put a quash on the devalutaion of the dollar. I would damn sure want to make sure I got some sort of return before I dumped my US treasury investments.
 
You mean the lowest value, The title of the thread is "dollar strengthening"....... and I think you meant USD not UDS???
 
Quote from Surdo:

You mean the lowest value, The title of the thread is "dollar strengthening"....... and I think you meant USD not UDS???
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Eh!eh!eh!

I gotta lay off the drinks before I type in the forum.
 
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