Dollar rally

[marc5193]

After extensive technical analysis I think it is highly probable we will see 1.40 + within the next two months. What you you guys think? The close this friday on this pair, and eur$, has given me a very strong signal. Especially Eur$, if you analyze a weekly chart, you will see that in nearly every instance the market closes within ten or so pips from the bottom of the weeks range, the pair trades lower at some point the following week. This would mean that in this case, what I see as the last line of defense for the euro will almost certainly be broken. That is, the support line that can be drawn from the base of the uptrend (last week of january 2002) to the low made in november last year, and subsequently, to the low on friday. I'm sure this is all fairly obvious, but I believe the close last friday gave a very important confirmation signal. I believe a large dollar decline will come eventually, but probably when least expected, and when everyones lost there money trying to play this scenario. I could be wrong, but the probabilities are in my favor.


marc

 

[downrivertrader]

I won't comment on the 1.40 prediction, but I am long. I added to my positon late Friday at the bottom. I posted several long term charts (just for the fun of it) in this thread if you want to take a look.

The View Down River

 

[illiquid]

Quote from marc5193:

After extensive technical analysis I think it is highly probable we will see 1.40 + within the next two months.

That's quite a dollar rally. You must be trading from australia?

 

[marc5193]

Quote from illiquid:

That's quite a dollar rally. You must be trading from australia?

Your point being?

Perhaps > 1.40 is a little excessive, but once a trend becomes well established, things can become excessive.

 

[indahook]

Hello, Good to see other $ traders in the mix. Personally I have been swinging $`s to the long side since early 05. Will continue to do so until my system tells me to go short. Good luck.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=44664&perpage=6&pagenumber=2

 

[CPTrader]

Just to be sure your target of 1.40 is for the Dx - Dollar Index. Your post is a little confusing as the Euro is typically quoted as 1.xy while the DX is quoted as abc.xy . So when you say 1.40 what comes to mind is a Euro rally to 1.40 not a dollar index rally to 140.


Please clarify. Thanks!

Quote from marc5193:

After extensive technical analysis I think it is highly probable we will see 1.40 + within the next two months. What you you guys think? The close this friday on this pair, and eur$, has given me a very strong signal. Especially Eur$, if you analyze a weekly chart, you will see that in nearly every instance the market closes within ten or so pips from the bottom of the weeks range, the pair trades lower at some point the following week. This would mean that in this case, what I see as the last line of defense for the euro will almost certainly be broken. That is, the support line that can be drawn from the base of the uptrend (last week of january 2002) to the low made in november last year, and subsequently, to the low on friday. I'm sure this is all fairly obvious, but I believe the close last friday gave a very important confirmation signal. I believe a large dollar decline will come eventually, but probably when least expected, and when everyones lost there money trying to play this scenario. I could be wrong, but the probabilities are in my favor.


marc

 

[gkishot]

Quote from marc5193:

Your point being?

Perhaps > 1.40 is a little excessive, but once a trend becomes well established, things can become excessive.

Come on, 1.14 is more like it.

 

[downrivertrader]

I did not think he was talking about the $Index. Sorry. Was thinking EURUSD currency.

DRT

 

[downrivertrader]

Hey Marc....thought of you on this one.

I don't know if you looked at any of the charts I have been posting in the other thread I mentioned. But I keep this one up on my desktop all the time.


This Weekly chart represents a regression channel connecting the 1998 high and the December 2004 peaks. Interesting that we are sitting right on the median line today. Sort of humbles me a little. Eight years of longs and shorts and here we are.

 

[downrivertrader]

The Daily chart belowis the expanded version of the weekly chart. What I find interesting here is that we moved below the median line before the end of the year and bouced strongly up to the 1.23 area. Now we are testing it again. We have a small double bottom working here and you would think that any move up would send a very significant message.

Again...the median line in the cyan color dates back to 1998. Amazing stuff.


Stay tuned. Guess your target could be either 1.40 or 1.00