Agreed, the implications are being understated. Your average Joe has no idea what is occurring and how it will effect the American lifestyle.
Dollar losing it's reserve status: An ET Roundtable
- Thread starter William Rennick
- Start date
Agreed, the implications are being understated. Your average Joe has no idea what is occurring and how it will effect the American lifestyle.
USD - still the best looking horse at the glue factory... Likely to remain that way for a while.
Moreover, why do you need to specifically position yourself for it, unless you have some major foreign ccy liabilities. Or is this a question about how to trade this, in a speculative sense?
Moreover, why do you need to specifically position yourself for it, unless you have some major foreign ccy liabilities. Or is this a question about how to trade this, in a speculative sense?
Why does it matter whether or not another currency can "replace the US Dollar as a reserve currency" ?
Even if the USD does not lose this non-existent "status", it is still possible that it could depreciate significantly against gold, oil, cotton, wheat, oats, soybeans, sugar and so on.
I agree with what Martinghoul wrote:
"USD - still the best looking horse at the glue factory... Likely to remain that way for a while."
I wish there was a viable alternative, but there really isn't, is there? Would we be having this discussion if there was? Of course not! The U.S. Government wouldn't get away with a 1/10th of the nonsense they get away with if there were a viable alternative, and we would have never gotten to this point.
What other non commu-dictator-led country taxes you on worldwide income as a citizen? Worse, what country can (and does) infringe on the sovereign rights of just about every civilized country on the planet in order to hunt down dissenters of this ridiculous policy?
So how does it unwind? It is going to take another sovereign (note, EU doesn't count) entity with a small, fiscally sound government, who is psychotic about personal property rights (think... Swiss... 30 years ago), strong and consistent rule of law, transparent free market economy, and a desire (and will to obtain, at whatever horrific human cost) for hegemony. Note that I didn't mention democracy in there.
For those pinning their hopes on China, my thoughts are it is going to take a civil war (with incumbents losing) followed by my recommended recipe for world economic powerhouse above for them to be a solution. Those who are real sinophiles will realize that this simply is not likely if for no other reason than that China for thousands of years has had no real interest in becoming a world superpower or being "Global Cop", which would be absolutely necessary in order to replace the US as you know it today.
What other non commu-dictator-led country taxes you on worldwide income as a citizen? Worse, what country can (and does) infringe on the sovereign rights of just about every civilized country on the planet in order to hunt down dissenters of this ridiculous policy?
So how does it unwind? It is going to take another sovereign (note, EU doesn't count) entity with a small, fiscally sound government, who is psychotic about personal property rights (think... Swiss... 30 years ago), strong and consistent rule of law, transparent free market economy, and a desire (and will to obtain, at whatever horrific human cost) for hegemony. Note that I didn't mention democracy in there.
For those pinning their hopes on China, my thoughts are it is going to take a civil war (with incumbents losing) followed by my recommended recipe for world economic powerhouse above for them to be a solution. Those who are real sinophiles will realize that this simply is not likely if for no other reason than that China for thousands of years has had no real interest in becoming a world superpower or being "Global Cop", which would be absolutely necessary in order to replace the US as you know it today.
Arguing about which currency to be in is the same as arguing which is the safest floor to be on at the WTC on 9/11.
The dollar will only lose its status as world reserve currency if the United States starts running large trade surplusses. A trade surplus means that the rest of the world is returning your dollar bills and thus depleting their reserves. I don't see this happen in the next decade. Maybe in the decades after this one, once the now emerging economies develop a into consumer based economies and start running deficits vis a vis the US economy.