Dollar LONG stance but hold trigger till ...

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Few days in the high mountains and all losses are history :)

No trades since my last fiasco.

Did I learn anything from Course #1 at the School of Hard Knocks?

Not a damn thing! :)

In hindsight I'm glad I did things the way I did esp. now that I see just a few hours ago that Professor Bassetti rec'd his subscribers to short the Euro about the time when I did, the only difference was that he told them to place the stop at 2% above the top - they are not elliottwavers so their premise is different. But they're still alive and I'm not.


My EurUsd focus still Short? ... Yes!

Still clueless on 1H? .... Yes.

Course #2 at the SHK begins now ....

no trade just yet ....
 
where are you shorting eurusd from?

there is a daily hammer formation 4 days ago that should squeeze the shorts

looking at a weekly chart ... there should be some resistance to the upside at about 1.53 - 1.55
 
Quote from usdoutlaw:

where are you shorting eurusd from?

there is a daily hammer formation 4 days ago that should squeeze the shorts

looking at a weekly chart ... there should be some resistance to the upside at about 1.53 - 1.55
More...

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No trade initiated just yet, but here's my 2 cents ...

Hammer, right on.

Weekly EurUsd 78.6% Fib @ 1.5241 is an exc. resistance to short from if we get there.

MO is that every single Daily top since Sept 23 is worth probing the potential 1-2 year = 15k++ pip LT short. Whatever is lost in the effort will within seconds of southbound take-off be realized to be = "cost of goods sold"

Look to the left on your weekly at the 2008 & 2007 spike tops and then of course the intact Daily = weekly uptrendline. All these are supporting Euro. To break all these Euro "pampers" $ needs a tsunami wave (aka Wave 3), the subject of this entire thread.
 
ongoing, continuing but deeper ancillary on-the-ground evidence of a major turn aborning ...

Magazines, newspapers etc., even more vociferous about $ death, Gold salvation.

Dollar bulls down to 2-3%, Gold bulls in the upper 90s.

Governments have called off "Recession" and now totally ignore any Deflation thoughts - (this alone is D's strongest characteristic IMHO, drying up of credit and Demand being the 2nd)

we have now challenged and exceeded the nonchalance/complacency pre-crash 2007 levels.

Taxidrivers and other low wage earners are openly flaunting their gold purchases, europeans are laughing at guys like me, the ignorant, dumbass US$ holders.

Dow Jones has repeatedly punished the bears to such an extent that they are aboard the northbound train and dare not go short again.

One big happy family, just like in Oct 2007.

The Market, the thus far strictest enforcer of "bankrupt the masses" is going to allow this to continue? :) :D :D
 
Head and shoulders forming on AUD/USD as the Dow fails 10,500 again?

I don't want to bet against Benny and the Sachzz, but this might be it.
 
Deadbroke,

Well here is something that may help your case for upcoming USD strength.

Look at the GBPUSD weekly chart with a 100 EMA

Everytime cable gets near the 100 EMA it is sold, just not furiously as before

So you can probably get your way with the USD by trading cable short under the 100 EMA

but forget it if cable breaks through the 100 EMA it will go to early 2008 style barring some incredible news like the UAE being swallowed up by the earth
 
Quote from usdoutlaw:

Deadbroke,

Well here is something that may help your case for upcoming USD strength.

Look at the GBPUSD weekly chart with a 100 EMA

Everytime cable gets near the 100 EMA it is sold, just not furiously as before

So you can probably get your way with the USD by trading cable short under the 100 EMA

but forget it if cable breaks through the 100 EMA it will go to early 2008 style barring some incredible news like the UAE being swallowed up by the earth
More...


Thanks, the weekly Cable 100 ema is spot on.

50% Fib (mar08-jan09) + giant overhead Nov05 bum also right at 100 ema. Then 2" higher LT movs crossing below 200 sma. So everything is suggesting a good Cable short. But unless EurGbp blasts north, I'm leaving short Cable alone, which is mostly why I'm focussing on short EurUsd
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Stop is now $1,156 - parabolic mode now clear as a bell.

Already I'm wrong by recommending closing 75% position @ $1090 -1106.
More...

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Gold took out the $1,156 Stop and is now at $1224.

75% of position closed at let's say $1,100.

25% remaining closed at $1,156.

But trend is not over .....

So overall eval of my rec is ... Failure to see the trend to the end = NOT good enough

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I have some improvement now in 4H and 1H which I'll try out here with gold's continuation, but the rec is complete and I failed the test.

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so continuing ....

Gold 4H stop still at $1026. Very distant but I'm going to trend follow and see if my method gets me out near the eventual top, wherever that might be.
 
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