Dollar LONG stance but hold trigger till ...

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Quote from davidmaria1:

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At first glance I thought what a crappy datafeed you must have with spikes like that... :D

What is your point with this though? That the trendline isn't broken or that we have a double top and an irregular head and shoulders, or that noone actually has a faint idea when the rigging of the dollar will stop and we all should continue to play darts?
 
Quote from orange_trad:

At first glance I thought what a crappy datafeed you must have with spikes like that... :D

What is your point with this though? That the trendline isn't broken or that we have a double top and an irregular head and shoulders, or that noone actually has a faint idea when the rigging of the dollar will stop and we all should continue to play darts?
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Just my view. There is downside remaining, but the overall trend is up. Suppose I should have included these views....
 
Quote from davidmaria1:

Just my view. There is downside remaining, but the overall trend is up. Suppose I should have included these views....
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No worries. I just tried to bully you into calling a top... :D

FYI I'm not a very good bully, apparently. :)
 
I haven't been trading the Euro, just the AUD/USD, but I use the E/U as a guide, which today is confusing if you look at dailies on either pair.
 
Quote from davidmaria1:

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Thanks David.

Looks like your chart is in arith. scale. There are 2 trendlines possible in this scale from the March 2009 low, one as you show and the other that price has not touched lately.

I use Log scale almost all the time and here there is only one trendline possible and it is holding prices perfectly, with just a tiny nick recently.

 
Thus far I'm holding steady on my EurUsd major trend reversal call AND shortside targets as listed a few pages back. All Short positions are ongoing, no changes whatsoever.

This might all turn out badly for me as the Daily EurUsd uptrend is still intact as per regular TA analysis. But I knew the risk from the start and it was my decision to take that risk. That risk is 200+ pips. I can live with that loss and the lesson that would inevitable come with it - and the pain of being so wrong.

I'm trying to see how 1H fits in with Daily, having a difficult time with it thus far, but immensely grateful to Viper for his assistance and warnings, which have given me alot of pause. I'm not a gambler by nature, I'm trading my own call because I believe in what I know.

If this call gets blown to bits, the obvious lesson for me is "DON'T GO AGAINST THE DAILY TREND despite how smart you think you are or how good and clear the elliottwave structure appears to be"

BUT then I see this article today from one of my prior teachers, Robert Prechter - and instantly my natural instincts to put my neck on the line and take the tough trade ... get revitalized.

So basically, I have alot of mental stuff to sort out ...


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...-To-Trading-Success-Ignore-Nature-s-Laws.aspx
 
preps for next week ..... still using the same 1H EurUsd chart

2 developing scenarios. I favor #1 and am already positioned for it.

(1) A repeating 1-2 = wave 3 down is subdividing. If correct, next move DOWN will rip concrete = public recognition of something huge afoot, hence the name "recognition wave" - The potential H&S with developing right shoulder & perfect neckline fits right into this scenario.

(2) If #(1) is wrong - we would know this soon because the moves will be sloppy - and we don't go even a hair lower than 1.4821, then we've got just 3 waves down = correction = trend is still up on 1H = top will be retested and taken out = kills my call and my positions.


 
Quote from deadbroke:



But can you take this advice from a newbie? Sell 75% of your Long Gold and the rest on the 60-min. trendline break. You're playing with fire right now, dreaming about $2k+ Gold. Don't let this greed ruin all your profit.

The first drop in gold could be a whopping $60-80 within seconds of topping.

Top expected around $1106. See chart.

All the best to you
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Evaluating my rec - now and later esp if I'm totally wrong and gold goes to $5k. :D

the rec 75% TP at 1090 or $1106 expected top would still be shy of the current $1132. So as per the rec you're still in 25%.

If we get a top I'd like to come back to this post and see if there would be that sharp $60-80 drop on reversal.

But in the meantime a 60-min. trendline has made itself available by wave consolidation low along with a 2nd steeper one.

Trendline break exit STOP = $1125.

Dennis Gartman is right to be shit scared to hold Gold without hedging. Don't know what method he uses. Looked like he was shivering on CNBC when asked about Gold's bubble

 
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