Dollar LONG stance but hold trigger till ...

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Quote from deadbroke:

Thread's LONG $ stance main & ancillary evidence

(1) EurUsd (57.6% of DX) 60-min. 5 waves down = trend reversal signal occurred. Chart 1-2 pages back remains in force.

(2) DX 9 waves down = wave C done. But we also have Daily trendline breakout. Good +ves here. Daily chart 3 pages back.

(3) DX component GBP (11.9% of DX) surrendered already, still true, as long as Sept 10 GBPUSD closing holds firm, this is still in DX's favor.

(4) DX component SEK (4.2% of DX) via USDSEK is THE ONLY one to take out a wave high already. So this one is very strongly in DX favor.

(5) USDJPY (13.6% of DX) looks like its ready to go north. A move past 92.4 will confirm this. If so, a good +ve for DX.

(6) USDCAD (9.1% of DX) has broken the downtrendline convincingly. Now need to take out 1.0931 for definite proof. If occurs, this will take out Crude Oil too, a singular DX enemy.

(7) No +ve DX evidence from USDCHF

(7) NZD & AUD, not DX components, look like they're ready to roll over. AUD has not broken any trendline but NZD has. And if AUD signal occurs, this will take out Gold too, another DX enemy.

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Now we wait.
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point (2) above ....

DX has made a marginal lower low - so I had to rethink the entire C-wave down move from March 09. I despise this aspect of wave theory as much as anybody here at ET and traders here are right to feel this disgust - it really screws up subscribers heads. But I'm a lone trader who knows nobody and nobody in their right mind would follow a losing trader, so .....

there are 13 waves down, so I'm still in the game because this # is also an impulse wave characteristic.

taking other points together ......

USDCHF, USDSEK, USDCAD have NOT made a lower low, so they are not confirming ... yet

GBPUSD has not made a higher high yet

NZDUSD still seems lost

AUDUSD is threatening a higher high on waning momentum

USDCHF ... I missed this yesterday - there is a similar Macd stairstep as in DX. This makes me feel instantly better as DX HAS to defeat the gnomes of Switzerland if he's going to go anyplace.
 
RE: CHFUSD and DEM (Deutsche Mark now Euro)

long-term charts since 1940 show that both these have finished 5 massive monthly waves up.

Think about it - they've been hammering the $ for 70 years. The tables are turning now? Yeah, looks that way to me ...

On the ground evidence that the above might be true based on Price as the cause and "events on the ground as effect" .....

banking is screwed everywhere, but Switzerland's gnomes have committed the ultimate sin - snitching against many, esp. American account holders to the In(F)ernal Revenue Service. Right on the cusp of 5-waves done.

$, buddy you better get dressed and ready to retake the throne that's rightfully yours.
 
EurUsd short pend 1 full Lot @ 1.48001 STOP = 1.4930 .......... 10-min. ago

reason for this:

DX could fire any moment. Since he has generated a new low, Euro might do the same (new high) which would close out my 3 positions and then if reversal occurs, it would leave me high and dry and ticked off.

So, by my reaoning, if there is a genuine reversal the wave low of the horiz. congestion on 1H EurUsd has to be taken out southbound. Stop is above the pattern.
 
I'll post a fresh EurUsd 1H chart tomorrow regardless dead or alive ...

some thoughts on my Stop getting zapped .... re: 1H EurUsd chart ....

when 61.8% got taken out, my heart sank. The Golden Ratio magic just evaporated.

when 78.6% got taken out the odds in my favor dropped like a stone to 15% = left ventricle shut down.

Then came the penultimate line, i.e. 88.3% Fib level. Take that out and the odds in my favor drop down to a mere 3%.

What's the 3% for? .... wave 2 can take out 100% of wave 1 - rare, rare rare.

Anything else in my favor? Yeah, CNBC just said that more magazine covers are calling for Dollar death. :D

all positions as-is

till tomorrow

:)
 
Duuuuuudly, you are short again, in a daily uptrend???????
Don't get all excited if you see a move lower between today and tomorrow, Bank holiday tomorrow in US and Canada. If you keep this up people will be reading your trades just to fade them. Be careful that you don't hurt yourself emotionally, if you get hurt bad enough you might never try again.

The Ever Avoiding Danger VIPER
 
EurUsd 60-min. chart showing my Stop level and the pre-need 88.3% Fib level.

4H chart ... different view, different message ... for me to live, the 5th subwave must fail shy of my Stop level.




 
Quote from TradeViper:

Duuuuuudly, you are short again, in a daily uptrend???????
Don't get all excited if you see a move lower between today and tomorrow, Bank holiday tomorrow in US and Canada. If you keep this up people will be reading your trades just to fade them. Be careful that you don't hurt yourself emotionally, if you get hurt bad enough you might never try again.

The Ever Avoiding Danger VIPER
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Will answer all posts after the move completes.

Thanks for the warning & advice, esp. about "emotion"

Trades are small, not using milk or rent money. Yes, violating rules of Daily Trend, but as should be clear, the bet is on Trend Reversal. A foolish bet, given rule #1, "the trend tends to continue" ... ? - yes.

The cost of the tuition for this misstep (?) will not be wasted, I promise.

As for other traders fading my trades, what if I beat them to it and start fading my own natural tendencies? :) :D
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

No org can manipulate it directly. But indirectly, the shepherd can lead the world by:

1. Providing free liquidity to the system.
2. Devaluing the dollar with reckless abandon.
3. Buying up equity markets worldwide (the so called "risk" trade).

Inadvertently, this results in the manipulation of EUR/USD.
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Thanks boss, I understand.
 
Quote from dumb_mother:

if you are trying to come up with your own strategy i'd say the 90% could easily be true. if you have learned a working strategy or even just realistic theories of a working strategy from someone i'd vastly improve your odds to say only a 50-60% failure rate. since i started working at my prop shop we have hired about 40 people and about 15 are still with us and profitable- and we have a working strat we teach you day one and still that failure rate (through the most volatile market in a few years)
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Thank you. Very encouraging about the "working strategy" - yes, unfortunately the strategy is entirely my own, uproven.
 
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