Dollar LONG stance but hold trigger till ...

[usdoutlaw]

Quote from deadbroke:

I was expecting GBPUSD to tank at 200 m.a. on 4H so I could short there, but it looks strong. On daily its right up against the H&S neckline. Also its at 50% retr. of recent 4H downwave.

What do you guys think?

This chart is interpreted wrong. your shoulders are wrong ... and really there is no H&S formation, maybe in the circled orange area with no distinct shoulders. But I think your shoulders are wrong.

There maybe a weird bearish elliot wave formation where the last crest is higher than the second.

But we are definitely back into the down channel and probably will stay there unless UK again surprises big time to the downside like that -0.4 GDP number. Maybe the US GDP will surprise below expectations and the USDGDP will just rip back up.

That's why forex is weird

 

[usdoutlaw]

Quote from fkbsuhites:

You obviously can't trade.

Buy gold while it's still cheap, hold it to 2000. Get a real job ( if you can ), learn the markets on the side.

wow that's just plain mean on both accounts. 1- he probably has a job and just wants feed back on his hobby, 2- gold won't go to 2000 in our life time if it does get ready to pay $50 for a Pepsi Mcfly

just tell him to scalp or something ... macro views and analysis are always for the birds

scalping 10 - 15 pips a day adds up believe that and then hold a small macro position if you like

you can't win them all but winning small adds up, don't be greedy, momentum can be your friend if you treat it as your enemy

 

[JSSPMK]

ImPO a bounce in USD is quite likely, but what's also likely is that it will hit 1st resistance & go back into a sell phase. When looking at technicals, you ought try to seek out some sort of fundamental reasoning at the same time, even if it is rather basic. Buy low, sell high might not be the way to go here, ImPO in case of USD, as long as stock markets don't go through a massive panic based decline, Sell Hi & Sell Lo(wer) is the way to go. But that's just my couple of pence

 

[usdoutlaw]

From your chart of the $index, I would not say it is a wedge. It is more of a slow down of dollar selling in relation to relative over-valuations of other currencies. Remember, there is no other economy that can support a global economy like the US. So killing the dollar so quickly is probably not the best idea. Unless the global economy is willing to accept gold as the "currency" of choice. For example, paying for oil in gold would literally destroy the US dollar. (highly unlikely because there is not enough gold to allow for the type of global commerce as we enjoy today, imagine people carrying around gold instead of cash or imagine owing 2.5oz of gold for your monthly credit card statement, ridiculous)

You acn also look at it as the uncertainty and anticipation of some type confirmation that there will not be a double dip recession in the US.

rant rant rant rant rant I am going home

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from usdoutlaw:

From your chart of the $index, I would not say it is a wedge. It is more of a slow down of dollar selling in relation to relative over-valuations of other currencies. Remember, there is no other economy that can support a global economy like the US. So killing the dollar so quickly is probably not the best idea. Unless the global economy is willing to accept gold as the "currency" of choice. For example, paying for oil in gold would literally destroy the US dollar. (highly unlikely because there is not enough gold to allow for the type of global commerce as we enjoy today, imagine people carrying around gold instead of cash or imagine owing 2.5oz of gold for your monthly credit card statement, ridiculous)

You acn also look at it as the uncertainty and anticipation of some type confirmation that there will not be a double dip recession in the US.

rant rant rant rant rant I am going home

Thanks for that, usdoutlaw. Good points.

I said "wedge" because I didn't want to attract the elliottwave haters.

Its actually an Ending Diagonal Triangle in elliottspeak. And its still valid.

IMHO everything that need be known about the $ is in the chart - no other info is necessary - only exception is the % bulls, so I use both together.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from usdoutlaw:

This chart is interpreted wrong. your shoulders are wrong ... and really there is no H&S formation, maybe in the circled orange area with no distinct shoulders. But I think your shoulders are wrong.

There maybe a weird bearish elliot wave formation where the last crest is higher than the second.

But we are definitely back into the down channel and probably will stay there unless UK again surprises big time to the downside like that -0.4 GDP number. Maybe the US GDP will surprise below expectations and the USDGDP will just rip back up.

That's why forex is weird

If you're referring to symmetry, I've seen worse H&S formations shown by TA experts and even in the TA bible, TAST9.

I'm sticking with it as-is but since the neckline was taken out, it might be a dud anyway.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

ImPO a bounce in USD is quite likely, but what's also likely is that it will hit 1st resistance & go back into a sell phase. When looking at technicals, you ought try to seek out some sort of fundamental reasoning at the same time, even if it is rather basic. Buy low, sell high might not be the way to go here, ImPO in case of USD, as long as stock markets don't go through a massive panic based decline, Sell Hi & Sell Lo(wer) is the way to go. But that's just my couple of pence

Thanks for your thoughts on this.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from fkbsuhites:

You obviously can't trade.

Buy gold while it's still cheap, hold it to 2000. Get a real job ( if you can ), learn the markets on the side.

Thanks for the advice.

Let's talk again when Gold hits $650.

 

[usdoutlaw]

Quote from deadbroke:

Thanks for that, usdoutlaw. Good points.

I said "wedge" because I didn't want to attract the elliottwave haters.

Its actually an Ending Diagonal Triangle in elliottspeak. And its still valid.

IMHO everything that need be known about the $ is in the chart - no other info is necessary - only exception is the % bulls, so I use both together.

The last three waves are bearish and diminishing in range from crest to trough ... thus the index is consolidating bearishly ... the market is waiting for a reason to break the trend with no clear indication in direction

But the direction is probably south, then again the market maybe waiting for news like positive US GDP or similar

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from usdoutlaw:

The last three waves are bearish and diminishing in range from crest to trough ... thus the index is consolidating bearishly ... the market is waiting for a reason to break the trend with no clear indication in direction

But the direction is probably south, then again the market maybe waiting for news like positive US GDP or similar

Given the above, I take it you disagree with the Ending diagonal Triangle scenario, a bullish pattern (if correct)?

If there is to be a throwover (downwards of course) we have the 78.6% fib right there to offer support.

Another point - have a look at the monthly for DX and tell me if you disagree (and why) that March08 was a higher than high probability bearmarket bottom, the deep current retracement notwithstanding?

updated daily (till friday) here with the 9th wave still ongoing