Dollar Index - Double Top - ready to go down ?

[syswizard]

I see that to trade the dollar index one must go to ICE as the CME does not have options for the US Dollar index.
Looking at the charts, symbol DX hit 102.5 back in March and it looks now that the US Dollar could take-out that high.
Of course, the Fed's talk of interest rate increases is causing this index to go up.
But what happens if the Fed does NOT pull the trigger in December ?
I think this index will fall quickly in that case.

 

[Scataphagos]

OTOH... The $USD is the "cleanest dirty shirt". As capital flees other economies and countries, where is it going to go?

$USD could be in for a much larger and long lasting bull run. I read lots of "end of $USD"... "$USD collapse", etc. There is a logical argument for all of that to be wrong.

 

[NoVoodooHere]

Years ago The Economist did a piece on how the dynamic driving the dollar lower vs Euro was a kind of tails I win heads you loose barbell... Kind of seems like the opposite of that theme working now.

 

[Cswim63]

I see that to trade the dollar index one must go to ICE as the CME does not have options for the US Dollar index.
Looking at the charts, symbol DX hit 102.5 back in March and it looks now that the US Dollar could take-out that high.
Of course, the Fed's talk of interest rate increases is causing this index to go up.
But what happens if the Fed does NOT pull the trigger in December ?
I think this index will fall quickly in that case.

I'm a trader. I'm not allowed to think too much. I'll just let the market tell me which way it wants to go. The only sign of strength right now is in the Aussie, and that's pretty marginal. All other attempts to rally lately have been met with failure, including gold. Why try to reinvent the wheel?

 

[cdcaveman]

most likely to narrate the story you want to believe as the driver... i agree with cswim

 

[syswizard]

Thanks for that CSwim...and that's my big problem: thinking too much....instead of acting.
Is there a way to play the Aussie dollar via options or I am stuck to spot or futures ?

 

[Cswim63]

Thanks for that CSwim...and that's my big problem: thinking too much....instead of acting.
Is there a way to play the Aussie dollar via options or I am stuck to spot or futures ?

The etf FXA has options I believe but spreads not great last time I checked. I thought CME had currency options.

 

[syswizard]

The etf FXA has options I believe but spreads not great last time I checked. I thought CME had currency options.

FXA options traded on the CBOE. However, volume is light. Interestingly, there is tons of open interest in the puts with a strike of 72 - Jan16 expiration. Dec15 has much lower open interest.

 

[Cswim63]

FXA options traded on the CBOE. However, volume is light. Interestingly, there is tons of open interest in the puts with a strike of 72 - Jan16 expiration. Dec15 has much lower open interest.

Maybe try a new post for info on currency options

 

[NoVoodooHere]

Did somebody say Auzzie strength? Look again...
$AUDUSD declined more than 0.4% after Australia's Capex data dropped the most on record in the 3Q of 2015.