Dollar Fixated

Quote from oldtime:

yes, very helpful, like if a guy wanted to get short USD, what would he do?
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:D
Well that depends.. if he wanted to take a view on USD overall maybe he'd short a basket of usd pairs, or if he wanted to go long specifically something else at the same time, perhaps he would do a pair trade..

Quote from oldtime:
My first attempt was a total disaster. I just went short USD against everything. I lost more in the first week of November than I made in all of October. And October was a very good month for me.
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Not sure on your time outlook.. I'm talking, usd down for 3 to 12 months (I don't know how long, I'm just assuming a reasonable time window, like previous downlegs.)
This would give enough time to build a decent usd position.

If you're talking shorter than that, then we're not looking at the same thing.

Build into the trade as it goes your way. FX is so noisy. Even when right, you can be shoved out of your position by a few days sharp counter-move.
Small initial risk, but if/when you have the move right, you can add more later when you have profit to up your bet.

Quote from oldtime:


Maybe I'll get it one of these days. Until then, I'm about as neutral as you can get on usd, and will just play everything else off one against the other, since they all seem to be moving with it.
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Neutral usd is not a bad stance right now, if the trend is unclear to you.
That being the case, don't trade it, and you won't be losing money to it.

What are you long on, and what are you short on?
Just trade those. Against each other.

It's also OK to trade nothing until something is clear!

Like your euraud trading, there was a reason it worked well..
aud and eur have given some great trends to trade in the last 12 months.
 
Quote from dev:

:D
Well that depends.. if he wanted to take a view on USD overall maybe he'd short a basket of usd pairs, or if he wanted to go long specifically something else at the same time, perhaps he would do a pair trade..




Not sure on your time outlook.. I'm talking, usd down for 3 to 12 months (I don't know how long, I'm just assuming a reasonable time window, like previous downlegs.)
This would give enough time to build a decent usd position.

If you're talking shorter than that, then we're not looking at the same thing.

Build into the trade as it goes your way. FX is so noisy. Even when right, you can be shoved out of your position by a few days sharp counter-move.
Small initial risk, but if/when you have the move right, you can add more later when you have profit to up your bet.



Neutral usd is not a bad stance right now, if the trend is unclear to you.
That being the case, don't trade it, and you won't be losing money to it.

What are you long on, and what are you short on?
Just trade those. Against each other.

It's also OK to trade nothing until something is clear!

Like your euraud trading, there was a reason it worked well..
aud and eur have given some great trends to trade in the last 12 months.
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maybe so, I hate to admit it, but I should just be long gold, then I would be de facto short everything else.

My time frame right now is about 30 days, that is what has been working for me. Average hold time on any one trade is probably 8 days. But you know, most of the money is made in just a few hours, if not minutes.

I'm pretty confident about this one I have on now, but it involves some pretty simple minded trading, adding to losers, adding to winners. You really can't do one without doing the other.
 
Quote from oldtime:

maybe so, I hate to admit it, but I should just be long gold, then I would be de facto short everything else.
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:) if thats what you think then fire away..

Can't say I agree. AUD doesn't agree either. Nor does SGD.. EUR appears to be starting an argument along the same lines. :D


OK, there are times to be long something. When it's 'going up'.
There are times to be short. If your analysis is any good, hopefully that coincides with it 'going down'.

And there are times to say 'I'm not really sure, I don't know where this is going, I'm going to wait until it's clearer'.

Just because gold goes up and holds an inverse correlation to usd, it does not follow that eur or jpy or gbp etc do not have their own path..
Or in fact, any path. They may be just getting dragged around with something else, or meandering aimlessly.
Likewise for USD. Is it in the driving seat, or is it just a passenger?
In order to know who's in the driving seat, you have to look at everyone in the car.

And I'm going to stop there.
 
Quote from oldtime:


I'm pretty confident about this one I have on now, but it involves some pretty simple minded trading, adding to losers, adding to winners. You really can't do one without doing the other.
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Entry quality dictates your tactics to catch the move/make a profit.

Edit: That actually encompasses choice of market AND your entry point.
 
Quote from dev:

:) if thats what you think then fire away..

Can't say I agree. AUD doesn't agree either. Nor does SGD.. EUR appears to be starting an argument along the same lines. :D


OK, there are times to be long something. When it's 'going up'.
There are times to be short. If your analysis is any good, hopefully that coincides with it 'going down'.

And there are times to say 'I'm not really sure, I don't know where this is going, I'm going to wait until it's clearer'.

Just because gold goes up and holds an inverse correlation to usd, it does not follow that eur or jpy or gbp etc do not have their own path..
Or in fact, any path. They may be just getting dragged around with something else, or meandering aimlessly.
Likewise for USD. Is it in the driving seat, or is it just a passenger?
In order to know who's in the driving seat, you have to look at everyone in the car.

And I'm going to stop there.
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well, it's good talking to you, I guess we'll know here in a few hours when forex opens back up again.

Like I said when I started this thread, I am dollar fixated.

Maybe you are right. I should start expanding out from 30 days to 90 days if that's what you say a move is.

The thing about usd is, eveybody wants to go down, but usd is the only one who has the mechanism in place.

Sounds sort of scary, I think they had this same conversation with Hitler when he was debating whether or not to exterminate all my aunts and uncles.

at anyrate, the usd can go down if they want to, it's just a matter of somebody saying, "Yes, go ahead."

eur can't do that, they still haven't figued out whose in charge

I like that short AUD/USD, especially way up here, because they really NEED to go down. We can postpone it for a while.
 
Quote from oldtime:

well, it's good talking to you, I guess we'll know here in a few hours when forex opens back up again.

Like I said when I started this thread, I am dollar fixated.

Maybe you are right. I should start expanding out from 30 days to 90 days if that's what you say a move is.

The thing about usd is, eveybody wants to go down, but usd is the only one who has the mechanism in place.

Sounds sort of scary, I think they had this same conversation with Hitler when he was debating whether or not to exterminate all my aunts and uncles.

at anyrate, the usd can go down if they want to, it's just a matter of somebody saying, "Yes, go ahead."

eur can't do that, they still haven't figued out whose in charge

I like that short AUD/USD, especially way up here, because they really NEED to go down. We can postpone it for a while.
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Good talking to you too oldtime.

I wouldn't say to change your time outlook, if thats your preference.
I was trying to say, expand your universe of what you look at. It may show that, while usd is dicking around, maybe you could have traded something better, something you were more certain of.

Anyway, good trading!
 
It has always been this way.

USD is the reserve currency, and has the biggest economy.

Right now, it is all about risk on or off scenarios.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

EUR/USD at 1.3015/16. I think it is a short.
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I'm long fom 2929

I doubt it will see much action from me this month unless it does something dramatic
 
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