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Doesn't this seem a bit excessive?
- Thread starter Tsing Tao
- Start date
Quote from J.Joseph:
Very true. The market moves on people, not value.
My theory is that the news dragging on caused people to continue selling off for a longer period of time than they would have under other conditions. Of course, not everyone was selling, just the general public. The corporate accounts and smart money knew better.
Anyway, this over-extension of selling created a vacuum of sorts, kind of like pulling a sling-shot back a bit farther than usual. The overall result was a rush of buying what was no longer availabe (since the smart money snatched up all the shares on June 23 - see the volume spike on intraday indeces between 2 and 4pm Eastern) and the market shot up.
It happens, but it was not unpredictable. I was able to net 24% during that time, more than my entire month of June.
Happy 4th everyone. Have a great 3 day weekend.
"smart money". Gimme a break, that concept has been discredited a thousand times over.
This isn't the 1990's, although most people on here still act as if it's business as usual.
Quote from Tsing Tao:
I would have argued the market fell because of the end of QE2, which hasn't changed. I guess I was wrong.
It's the only trick left in the central planner's bag. Bullish/bearish, I could give two shits. When I have to worry about confiscation and asset seizures, then I give a shit. That's why this completely myopic fairy tale about what the stock market does is left for half-dead fools like "nine ender". The brighter minds have been in commodities/metals for the 2009 rally higher as it makes no difference what you've "gained" if those trillions of dollars of debt can't be "rolled over" going forward.
Quote from denner:
"smart money". Gimme a break, that concept has been discredited a thousand times over.
This isn't the 1990's, although most people on here still act as if it's business as usual.
Your statement implies that there is also no "dumb money" b/c there can't be "smart money" w/o "dumb money" and so if there's no "smart money", there's no "dumb money". Do you really want to try to defend that, when there are so many posts here that indicate the poster is definitely "dumb money" (although, to be fair, some of those posters will eventually learn)?
Quote from logic_man:
Your statement implies that there is also no "dumb money" b/c there can't be "smart money" w/o "dumb money" and so if there's no "smart money", there's no "dumb money". Do you really want to try to defend that, when there are so many posts here that indicate the poster is definitely "dumb money" (although, to be fair, some of those posters will eventually learn)?
Right, I hear ya. I just get annoyed with this term "smart money". I've heard it for God knows how many years and it always seems to imply this sort of acumen that simply does not exist for the most part. There are so very very few people who actually make these outsized gains speculating on direction. If anything it's more the "gimmicrky" of trading these CDO's, CDS's that blew up the system and marking them to some fantasy pricing.
Of course, we could always call the "smart money" the "friends of the Fed" who just front run asset purchases and what have you. It's a crooked as hell game with the biggest money, but that's outside the realm of these sharp short term directional moves. It's complete naivete to think otherwise.
Quote from denner:
Right, I hear ya. I just get annoyed with this term "smart money". I've heard it for God knows how many years and it always seems to imply this sort of acumen that simply does not exist for the most part. There are so very very few people who actually make these outsized gains speculating on direction. If anything it's more the "gimmicrky" of trading these CDO's, CDS's that blew up the system and marking them to some fantasy pricing.
Of course, we could always call the "smart money" the "friends of the Fed" who just front run asset purchases and what have you. It's a crooked as hell game with the biggest money, but that's outside the realm of these sharp short term directional moves. It's complete naivete to think otherwise.
Sorry about that, I've actually never used the term before. Just repeating what I've heard on here. All I meant by it is that lots of money, mine included, wasn't fooled by the decline and added to their positions right on the 200 day moving average.
And by the way, directional trading is not hard. There must be some keys that you never picked up on. Also, the sharp move didn't happen because of the big players directly. The big players did their thing on June 23. It was the small guys as a mass buying back what they sold, but from a smaller supply, that did it. It has to go up until their buying power can't handle the cost/share. Then it will stop.
Quote from J.Joseph:
Sorry about that, I've actually never used the term before. Just repeating what I've heard on here. All I meant by it is that lots of money, mine included, wasn't fooled by the decline and added to their positions right on the 200 day moving average.
And by the way, directional trading is not hard. There must be some keys that you never picked up on. Also, the sharp move didn't happen because of the big players directly. The big players did their thing on June 23. It was the small guys as a mass buying back what they sold, but from a smaller supply, that did it. It has to go up until their buying power can't handle the cost/share. Then it will stop.
No problems. Actually, I did sense a definite potential reversal early in the week just based upon the failure to make new lows and that quasi "inside day". The difference nowadays from years past is the fact that this turned into five days of relentless "squeeze" higher. The sort of "two way" action has gone the way of the do-do bird and it's squeeze or be squeezed.
Not a novel concept, it's been occurring steadily for the past 7-8 years.
Since DOW/SP500 is now EXTREMELY overbought, the reaction
next week should result in a significant retracement.
S&P500 daily charts show updated rising wedge and possible head and shoulders pattern with target of 1150 when confirmed. Recent aggressive buying and short covering is revealed by very bullish candles.
[Warning: Nine_Ender is an unbalanced internet stalker prone to aggressive emotional outbursts who clearly needs professional help]
next week should result in a significant retracement.
S&P500 daily charts show updated rising wedge and possible head and shoulders pattern with target of 1150 when confirmed. Recent aggressive buying and short covering is revealed by very bullish candles.
[Warning: Nine_Ender is an unbalanced internet stalker prone to aggressive emotional outbursts who clearly needs professional help]
Quote from J.Joseph:
(since the smart money snatched up all the shares on June 23 - see the volume spike on intraday indeces between 2 and 4pm Eastern)
Is that what happened?
As I recall there was some silly news item (Basel III going to require less capital than thought or something) at 2pm. Ridiculous gunning into the close on fumes which got promptly retraced the next day.
I'd say everything up to 1315-1320 was perfectly normal, considering the multiple weeks of consolidation we saw below 1300. End of quarter, end of month, pre-holiday gave us the last 20-25 points. Quite a thing to see though.