Doesn't anyone remember 2000?

Has anyone noticed how the SPX topped in October almost exactly where it topped in 2000? Likewise, INDU ended up much higher, NDX/COMP much lower and WLSH only slightly higher (6% or so).

Are double top formations relevant over an eight-year timespan? Luckily, except in NDX, we haven't seen lower highs/lower lows yet. Could be many years before we (might) see LL, many more before we see LH.

It also seems to me that we're seeing the results of several decades of bad policies. Stopgap measures won't work as they have before, and the only rabbits left in the hat are more debt, higher deficits, more cash printing, all feeding the underlying imbalances. If the market only recovered in '03 because of real estate and greenspanism, where will we be in a decade?
 
Quote from athlonmank8:

Oh wait, few of you guys were around during that period. You only got the perma -bull half. Now it's time for the real fun. Losing. It's time for the longs to grab some popcorn because now the market's going to teach you how to REALLY invest.

Now let me update you on what happened.

Prices decline over the summer. Everyone wondered what the hell happened and no big deal.

Then WACK. We got nailed. Just like today.

The same scenario is playing out EXACTLY like 2000. Those of you who were around and were in techs remember it well.

Those of you who are long and simply too dumb to sell....will learn the hard way.

Remember, investing comes with experience. It now begins.
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I have been trading since you were still in your dads ballsack.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

You want me to read a thread of et'ers discussing trendlines? Tell ya what. Learn point and figure charts and trade based off of them ,and then tell me a trendline doesn't work.
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You didn't even read my post you idiot. If people like you make up the majority of this site, I can see why they never get things correct.

My post said they DO work lol. ughhh you're a real piece of work I can see.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

Yes, that was a very profound statement about trendlines.
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1. Regardless, you didn't read my post.

2. Why do trendlines work then? And "because they do" isn't an answer.

As for your P&F comment you seem like you think that P&F charts are the holy grail.

P&F, log charting, linear charting, market profile......

there's billions of things you can add to that list that are equally as good as those "P&F charts" for trading.

I can draw little lines on a chart and trade based on them IF I wanted.......I think just about anyone on this site has that capability.
 
There is only one way to draw a trendline on a p&f chart. There is no chance for error.

Perhaps if you knew how to read a trendline you would have waited before getting out of stocks in your 401k. Now all you have done is got out close to the low. Congrats.

Now true, the trend could later be broken, but we are so close to finding out if it will hold that it makes no sense to get out now. Hey, but it's your money, and I could really care less.
 
Look at the attached 10 year chart of the SPX with monthly candles and the 20 month moving average.

Notice in November 2000 the SPX had its first monthly candle close below the 20mma (20 month moving average).
That November 2000 candle was the first monthly candle close below the 20mma since late 1994.

After that November 2000 monthly candle close, a bear market
followed lasting 31 months, in which all monthly candles closed below the 20mma from November 2000 to May 2003.

From July 2003 to December 2007 there has been a 54 month bull market in which all monthly candles closed above the
20 month moving average.

And finally: January 2008 was the first monthly candle close
below the 20 month moving average in the bull market of 2003 to 2007.
Will the January 2008 monthly close below the 20mma trend line trigger what occurred in November 2000?
 

Attachments

Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy. ;)

Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
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Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
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The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
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Good trading,
MC
 
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