Does trendline work?
- Thread starter GloriaBrown
- Start date
Go for it, with all due respect you don't seem to know how to draw a simple trendline correctly even after the fact
My reply wasn’t to you @SunTrader, you're one of the few who posts charts before the event 
The reply was for @Scataphagos, because I also expressed my view on his chart, and pointed out that the trendline he drew wasn’t a proper trendline.
The last two swings (on his chart) were too far away from the trendline, making his trendline invalid, and therefore his trade would have been taken in a no-man's zone and that it worked out was due to luck, and had nothing to do with his trendline.
When it comes to drawing trendlines, the last swings (pivots) are more important than the ones at the beginning of the trendline, yet he drew the trendline the other way around, i.e. connecting the distant swings and ignoring the recent ones.
Everyone can see that his trendline was wrong (even when he drew it after the fact).
So, if @Scataphagos is convinced that my thinking is “sooooo far off,” he’s welcomed to present his argument on how to draw trendlines.
The reply was for @Scataphagos, because I also expressed my view on his chart, and pointed out that the trendline he drew wasn’t a proper trendline.
The last two swings (on his chart) were too far away from the trendline, making his trendline invalid, and therefore his trade would have been taken in a no-man's zone and that it worked out was due to luck, and had nothing to do with his trendline.
When it comes to drawing trendlines, the last swings (pivots) are more important than the ones at the beginning of the trendline, yet he drew the trendline the other way around, i.e. connecting the distant swings and ignoring the recent ones.
Everyone can see that his trendline was wrong (even when he drew it after the fact).
So, if @Scataphagos is convinced that my thinking is “sooooo far off,” he’s welcomed to present his argument on how to draw trendlines.
That’s for starters. Then there’s the fact that an actual trading system or approach requires actual entries, stops, and targets/exits at hard-right-edge prices. Getting stopped out by a tick, or miss the limit entry by a tick, and it may as well be by a hundred points.
FWIW in my experience, traders who do use TLs in some fashion are 1) using the TL as an entry/timing trigger but “a TL break” is emphatically not the actual trade thesis or basis for putting on the trade; and 2) they go for tremendous R:R to make up for the imprecision and fallibility of TLs and chart lines as a timing tool.
OK, now I see - although I don't see Scat, at all. Wink, wink.My reply wasn’t to you @SunTrader, you're one of the few who posts charts before the event
The reply was for @Scataphagos, because I also expressed my view on his chart, and pointed out that the trendline he drew wasn’t a proper trendline.
The last two swings (on his chart) were too far away from the trendline, making his trendline invalid, and therefore his trade would have been taken in a no-man's zone and that it worked out was due to luck, and had nothing to do with his trendline.
When it comes to drawing trendlines, the last swings (pivots) are more important than the ones at the beginning of the trendline, yet he drew the trendline the other way around, i.e. connecting the distant swings and ignoring the recent ones.
Everyone can see that his trendline was wrong (even when he drew it after the fact).
So, if @Scataphagos is convinced that my thinking is “sooooo far off,” he’s welcomed to present his argument on how to draw trendlines.
Right.
Like you say, trend lines are no doubt both imprecise and inconsistent. That does not render them useless, IMHO, but it makes you wonder how much value it has as a tool in your toolbox.
Of course, there are many uses cases as I'm sure some are trading merely the breakouts while others may be fading the edges, i.e., selling swing highs and buying swing lows. Maybe a better approach is to simply focus on the swing highs and lows?
Ultimately, trend lines / channels is an attempt to capture/measure/predict the oscillatory nature of the markets. Occasionally they can do it extremely accurately, although I can't help but wonder if it's random. Other times it's more messy and it's very hard to differentiate between an actual breakout and a fakeout.
PS: A bit funny to see three different posters argue about which interpretation is the right one. I guess that's discretionary trading in a nutshell and what makes a market.
%%Right.
Like you say, trend lines are no doubt both imprecise and inconsistent.
PS: A bit funny to see three different posters argue about which interpretation is the right one. I guess that's discretionary trading in a nutshell and what makes a market.
True;
but computer drawn[+ WSJ + IBD drawn] trend line$ like moving average$ are neither imprecise or inconsistent
Here's a "trend support line" that HAS held/bounced. This is the technical place to play it.
The "start" is all you get to KNOW... the rest you have to play by ear. Is it going to "stick" and be good? Don't know. If the line holds as support, it tells you something. If it breaks, it also tells you something.
Do trendlines "work"? Of course they do... just not a perfectly as players wish they did.... so noobs whine, "they don't work all the time/perfectly, so they're BS" (they whine about indicators the same way.... wrong about that too)... that's why they're noobs.
KISS, Baby!
The "start" is all you get to KNOW... the rest you have to play by ear. Is it going to "stick" and be good? Don't know. If the line holds as support, it tells you something. If it breaks, it also tells you something.
Do trendlines "work"? Of course they do... just not a perfectly as players wish they did.... so noobs whine, "they don't work all the time/perfectly, so they're BS" (they whine about indicators the same way.... wrong about that too)... that's why they're noobs.
KISS, Baby!
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Your curved trendline is actually a bear flag