Does trendline work?

[Onra]

Hi @Onra, if you want to use trendline to identify possible trendline breakout areas, then the blue trendline you drew should be drawn as an outer trendline connecting minimum of three major swing points.

Also, a ‘retest’ can occur only after the initial breakout, and there was no breakout when the chart was posted, therefore there was no ‘retest”.

See the chart below with explanations, I hope it helps.

View attachment 322452

Thanks man; I just drew them "eyeballing" the closes...
Your method makes sense; ...it's just not for me!

 

[SunTrader]

3 touches is traditional use of trendlines. Markets often don't cooperate. Also trendlines are not a good word to call them since most never draw them capturing a trend - way away from the price trend but they did find some arbitrary points to connect.

I use Tom DeMark's more common sense rules of just 2 points needed - and drawing from pivots right to left, not left to right. Most recent matters most.

 

[speedo]

The question is not whether trendlines "work" but can they be used effectively in providing an edge within a well defined and tested trade plan. The answer to that is absolutely. Trend lines exist by virtue of price reaction at such levels. Understanding how to effectively use them as a technical condition as does any tool(s) requires an understanding of price behavior through time and market cycle and that takes a of of work. Comments as to whether something or the other "works" as well as the "show me your best setup" threads are simply on line forum bullshit.

 

[bone]

Yes, trendlines work brilliantly when modeling long term data.

 

[murray t turtle]

As I said previously, trendlines work when drawn properly.

Blue line not red one, late this afternoon on NQ:-

View attachment 322265

But even when drawn properly a distinction needs to be made between qualified and unqualified ones to enter. Or fade it.

%%
LOL,NOT that simple\ but the blue line principle, more data = better

 

[Darc]

I'm surprised people are arguing they don't work!

 

[SunTrader]

 

[Specterx]

Do trendlines work?

They are a very simple momentum indicator. Sometimes that’s all you need. If Jerome Powell says tomorrow that he’s going to do $250bn a month of QE and gold “breaks a trendline”, you can bet I’m a buyer.

That said, the idea that people base entire trading systems around trendlines, or use them to make consistent money day-trading index futures or FX crosses or whatever, is just a joke.

 

[LuisJara]

If you,re a trend follower a trend line is a useful tool that helps you to identify lower highs on a bull marker or higher lows in a bear market.

 

[SunTrader]

Difference between using closing prices (red) versus spike highs (yellow):-

Happens over and over. Majority of traders lose because majority of traders don't want to step out of their comfort zone or believe "they" say this is how it is and always will be so I better not stray far from the perfect book example.

Look at candle bodies on each swing highs and how TL skims right across them. And ignore the fact wicks poke through and you'll see ... a ha.