Indeed. So here is where the magic happens...
The blue lines are the new magic trend channel. The green oval is the party-pooper.
So where do we go from here? Nowhere! Exactly! Trend lines mean crap!
Does trendline work?
- Thread starter GloriaBrown
- Start date
Indeed. So here is where the magic happens...
The blue lines are the new magic trend channel. The green oval is the party-pooper.
So where do we go from here? Nowhere! Exactly! Trend lines mean crap!
Nobody knows but with reading the price action and with proper risk management, you can make favorable trades. I'll gladly wipe off the fairy dust from that money I made on that magical trendline.
Thumbs up on the Spinal Tap
Short-term trends within a bigger RANGE.
An astute practitioner could have recognized the "expansion" of the up-trends in real-time.
An astute practitioner could have recognized the "expansion" of the up-trends in real-time.
Trend lines can be just a system by itself or activity, signals, can be reduced by adding more indicators or more chart patterns. I prefer to "KISS".
One can reduce amount of signals by stricter rules on how to draw a trend line, in my case I won't draw through bars or candles if more than half a tick or couple pennies.
Above chart, after the fact looks amazing, but starting it from pivot high to left might produce losing attempts.
Trading to upside with trend after stock had two downs days, aka Crabel's book, and being stocks goes up approx 65% of the time by itself, favorable odds increase. So what's left is amount of risk and trend lines offer smaller risk by waiting for bounce off upsloping trend line. Nothing works 100% of the time, so betting one or two dimes on stocks under $50 stock and seeking triple plus returns gives better odds providing one does not stay in trade too long on intraday charts if stock not returning to current trend.
LOL, I look back in time of my life and realize, the above took me years to get it down. Time for another Starbucks.
Could not Agree More, Toss in a Hammer at Support / Resistance precisely where you are talking about and ... you get the picture.
Something I've looked at but can't justify it with stats is the idea of using Volume around those price/TL intersections and correlating the vols etc, with trade success. So I don't check that when i see a fine Ham@SR TL entry, I'm lookin at Stop level, Target Level, Resisistance to move stuff.
If vol plan can make the stats easy to collect, using a written in text discription of Steps In The Trade Using the Additional indicator' of Volume, I'd want to take a quick look at a couple dozen instances.
Some use vol, some scoff. Scat ain't gonna be fussin with Vol on his chart, and he aint no spring chicken in this kindhearted and generous little busines, lol. So that lends credibility in my books. When in doubt, Don't bother, a keepin' it simple tenet.
I put vol bars on just out of habit and to remind in after hours sessions that liquidity Ain't there.
Others Do use vol bars, but Tom O'Neil over at tfnn is the only one I've seen put forth an explanation that is understandable given the way he analyzes his charts during his Show (so there's that too, lol) 'Jump the Creek on xyz Vol, Return to the Creek on xyz Vol, take a serious look at this point. Don't want to provide specific discription because it isn't crystal clear in trading plan. Call him up during his show, He'd Love to do some 'splaining. He's been at it for many-a-moon too.
So Do you use Vol when the price gets to your TL's?
Could not Agree More Again!
One proven setup, well understood, documented stats, hell yeah brother.
Don't Need to find new setups, Instead a trader cah Go find other Products / Charts that are getting set-up to trigger and trade those using the same system, rinse and repeat.
I am not looking for increased volume at trend lines, quite the opposite. Large players accumulate on way down, so looking at smaller timeframe where left shoulder is formed on high volume then price goes down on reduction of volume and hits upsloping trend line and should a right shoulder come in to complete head and shoulders will add.
Well I think it time for Starbucks
I'm not sure if you're agreeing or disagreeing because I have my own issues with reading and interpreting people's intentions online, but didn't my trades within the range/forecasted trendline recognize and make an execution 3 times successfully? One was failed with a small loss because the short-term trend broke but the position was up before it broke down. That is real-time, not in hindsight. Learning here and I respect your input.
Actually @Vtechno , I was just throwing another interpretation into the mix. Nothing directly aimed at your (profitable) chart and analysis.
TLs absolutely work! I use them daily in combination with volume, which is not shown. Volume is the key in my usage in that volume tells me the story of a trend... and trends have 3 parts to them... a beginning, a middle, and an end. There are also trend interrupts, early ends, and even forced change. I prefer trading sloped trends rather than (Hz)ranges
The chart I posted is a very clean version of what I do daily. In a nutshell, as you know, you can only earn from what the market offers. And each day is different.
Have a nice weekend.