Does trendline work?

Does trendlines work?

Trend lines are just a tool to help pin points the path of least resistance & can at times help identify areas where price is more inclined to make large breakouts. Its a skill that you build on, you are always learning.

There are trend lines spanning from years to decades, that are being observed by large hedge funds, banks, pension funds, the Fed, etc..

View attachment 207313

Curved trend lines
View attachment 207315
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I thought that as 10 year chart@ first glance-OH well less= commissions that way. I like a 2oo day/200 period trendline, but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work.
Another big problem for some with a 200dma;
a 200 sma,
200ema,
200smma,
200wma,
200dma,
200lwma,
200 priod ma................................................................ -all of those differ
 
Its not true, they're not MA's. MA's are mathematically calculated and cannot vary no matter which trader is looking at the chart. TL's are projections of our own analysis and many traders will plot different TL's on different gradients and directions and significantly varying numbers of TL's.

Where TL's and MA's are similar is that they're both poor entry signals.

Yes, MM is waaaaay more important than the (entry) signal.
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But good guidelines; including but not limited to 200 dma...........................................
 
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I thought that as 10 year chart@ first glance-OH well less= commissions that way. I like a 2oo day/200 period trendline, but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work.
Another big problem for some with a 200dma;
a 200 sma,
200ema,
200smma,
200wma,
200dma,
200lwma,
200 priod ma................................................................ -all of those differ

mr murray t turtle,

". . . but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work."
 
trendline, but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work.
hell yeah brother 99.jpg
 
Of interest to me would be traders that spend less than two days in any trade.
optimal time, and of primary interest to me would be for trades lasting entry to exit for a duration of minutes = .1 to 100 minutes. That'd be 6 seconds to an hour, rarely two hours.

Now for my rude question:

Have you seen anyone use *anything* to trade successfully?

Timeframe?
Method(s)?
Poduct: futures, stocks, options?

View attachment 207997
Sorry for taking a while to respond, and NP -- not "rude" to ask at all. Will do my best to respond...

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My own main interest/focus is daytrading (no overnight holds) using stocks... so that's mostly what I’ve seen directly, and am able to describe in relation to your question. And which kinda fits with your duration of interest.

As far as narrowing it down to the specific, optimal time of focus you mentioned (< 2 hrs), I’d probably generalize “*what I’ve seen* work" under two categories (made up my own names):

“Momo” scalpers
Description: “Vertical" type traders who play gappers or stocks-in-play (SIPs) (due to some type of catalyst). (Note: My experience is mostly with long-side traders, although have seen others who short or play both long/short.)
Timeframes: 1’/2’/5’ plus daily S/R
Trade Duration: mostly 15 sec - 5 min, up to maybe 30 min
Method: “Scalping” fast moves on momo stocks using simple TA*, simple PA** and basic Level 2/tape reading. Defensive management focused more on protecting entry and getting trade to break-even or better by locking in partial profits on way up and aggressively raising mental stop to breakeven as quickly as possible. So not very "systematic" on taking profits per se, other than PA, chart "targets" and L2.
Product: mostly lower-priced, low-float stocks (though not exclusively -- can do pricier stuff under certain conditions)
Tools/indicators: conventional candlesticks & volume; MAs (i-day & daily); VWAP (occasionally); Level 2/tape; other***

Discretionary TA/PA traders
Description: Discretionary traders who play gappers, SIPs, or stocks with 60’/daily patterns
Timeframes: 1’/2’/5’/15’ plus 60’/daily/weekly for longer TF bias, MTF alignment and S/R
Trade Duration: mostly 2 - 30 min (?), but up to “all day” depending on management and what stock does
Method: Using some combination of simple TA* and simple PA** to trade stocks that have some kind of higher TF catalyst or pattern which establishes directional bias. Mostly R-based management (using technical stop) for timing and initial targets, but often trailing back portions. Methodical hard stop adjustment, either R-based or technical (e.g., pivots).
Tools/indicators: conventional candlesticks & volume; MAs (i-day & daily); VWAP (occasionally); Level 2/tape (occasionally -- mostly for specific applications); other***

(I was originally gonna mention “pure scalpers” as a third category, but my experience with those has been more anecdotal, second-hand (albeit from people I trust).)

* “Simple TA" = basic S/R, trendlines, candle patterns, MAs, multiple TF alignment, etc. NOT “Bukowski-ish” patterns or “Nison/Bigalow-ish” candlesticks. Have seen some individuals seem to successfully use other indicators like RSI, MACD, etc. to help them time entries/exits.
** “Simple PA” = basic PA, NOT “Al Brooks”-level PA
*** "Other" = miscellaneous factors, rules-of-thumb, etc. which provide additional (but important) context to the trade. May include: individual stock characteristics, overall market environment, market behavior, seasonal factors, time of day, etc.

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And then of course, they do all the other (harder?) stuff right — have clearly defined plans/setups, stick to the plan/follow rules, control risk, money management, emotional management, tracking/stats, etc., etc.

Hope this answers your question. Did you just get back from vacay in the Caribbean, lol? Like the "in-character" mode! Have a great long weekend, and stay safe in you're in the Dorian area...
 
mr murray t turtle,

". . . but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work."
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They're also slow]moving averages];
but less commissions + more profit sometimes...………………………………………………………………….
 
I doubt anyone can really code an objective trendline system with programming. Give the same chart to 10 "pro charters", very likely all of them would draw different trendlines on the same chart.


Depends on the methodology.

Similar methodologies with traders of the same skill level would produce similar charts.

Different methodologies would produce different charts simply due to a different spectrum and level of differentiation applied by their practitioners.

Just like:
All surgeons are doctors, not all doctors are surgeons.

All mothers are female, not all females are mothers.

Rather than doubting the tool, doubt the application of it.

A complete system can be programmed, not all programs are complete systems.
 
Depends on the methodology.

Similar methodologies with traders of the same skill level would produce similar charts.

Different methodologies would produce different charts simply due to a different spectrum and level of differentiation applied by their practitioners.

Just like:
All surgeons are doctors, not all doctors are surgeons.

All mothers are female, not all females are mothers.

Rather than doubting the tool, doubt the application of it.

A complete system can be programmed, not all programs are complete systems.

So you said all of these without any stats.
 
So you said all of these without any stats.

Your statement is 100% true. Boolean math supports understanding the market and is based on certainty. Game theory, probabilities and statistics are based on uncertainty.
 
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