does this market seem manipulated???

For anybody still in doubt, why not listen to what David Viniar from GS, a member of the hugely successful boyband "Tha Boyz" had to say in their last quarterly:

The third quarter (of 2006) was challenging for equities. Following the correction that began in mid-May and continued into early June, equity markets fluctuated within tight ranges as investors struggled to understand where the market and broader global economy might be going next. This market uncertainty led to fewer opportunities and lower level of customer activity over the summer months.
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Read: The boyz make more cash when the markets and their clients feel comfortable shelling out cash for equities. Tumbling markets make a bad environment for that. The boyz do their best to not let that happen.

Think 1: DOW -120 points doesn't look good to the retail sheep while they do their weekend portfolio tinkering. So the boyz make it a -20 within 120 short minutes via the futures. Piece of cake.
Think 2: Who (with a buying power of $6 bn US) executed that 100.000 ES-mini buy order on Nov 15 to help push the SP cash through 1390. Bingo, we have a winner!

Hint: Check GS' next quarterly report for trading results. They will be mucho better than 03/2006 :p
 
Quote from makloda:

For anybody still in doubt, why not listen to what David Viniar from GS, a member of the hugely successful boyband "Tha Boyz" had to say in their last quarterly:


Read: The boyz make more cash when the markets and their clients feel comfortable shelling out cash for equities. Tumbling markets make a bad environment for that. The boyz do their best to not let that happen.

Think 1: DOW -120 poinst doesn't look good to the retail sheep while they do their weekend portfolio tinkering. So the boyz make it a -20 within 120 short minutes via the futures. Piece of cake.
Think 2: Who (with a buying power of $6 bn US) executed that 100.000 ES-mini buy order on Nov 15 to help push the SP cash through 1390. Bingo, we have a winner!

Hint: Check GS' next quarterly report for trading results. They will be mucho better than 03/2006 :p
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we're having a trin discussion on another forum.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=81831&goto=newpost

I made an observation that I saw some conflicting trin data between nq and es futures, perhaps you could extrapolate to suggest this occured thru futures or even basket manipulation.

I'm sure they (whoever it is, PPT, or a network of banks,etc.) have algorithms designed to determine when the market is suitable for this 'manipulation' at the lower cost. Like I theorized, when selling or buying mood is tentative, particularly low volume days, smaller amounts of volume [disproportional to typical impact on price movement] can move the markets in big ways that are psychologically meaningful.

The better question here is this: is this attainable 'manipulation' purely the domain of a few very special quant algorithm guys who've designed programs to facilitate doing this at a lower risk to whoever is doing it? [for example analysis of indicators correlated conceptually to TRIN might have a play]

And remember that very cleverly placed orders at precisely the correct point of time can achieve large net movements without much capital... TA would be completely meaningless if this wasn't true.

there's a place for all of this quant study, and I bet its here.
 
Quote from dac8555:

the pure lack of volatility lately....and that crazy buying at the close today seemed VERY coordinated...almost manipulated.

Either there REALLY IS a PPT or...all the big boys on the street are taking advantage of game theory to do what they want with the market.


does it seem odd to anyone else?
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No.

nitro
 
like others have said before if you can identify the flow of the manipulation you can make some good coin but the only problem with manipulated markets is when they are done, they shake pretty good....

if more economic data comes out showing there is not a soft landing coming will private equity continue its buying spree?
 
Quote from otcstockfund:

like others have said before if you can identify the flow of the manipulation you can make some good coin but the only problem with manipulated markets is when they are done, they shake pretty good....

if more economic data comes out showing there is not a soft landing coming will private equity continue its buying spree?
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u gotta wonder tho about the housing sector and the slew of atrocious data yet many of the builders showing serious strength.

look at this chart of tol. this p.o.s. broke hard on the upside and there's plenty of momo pointing at higher prices:
 

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Quote from Bitstream:

u gotta wonder tho about the housing sector and the slew of atrocious data yet many of the builders showing serious strength.

look at this chart of tol. this p.o.s. broke hard on the upside and there's plenty of momo pointing at higher prices:
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well we'll see if the increase is legit on tues with TOL reporting
 
Quote from infolode:

This was touted as a short squeeze(:D )



A Bit of Speculative Excess

By Rev Shark

About this article:
We have a positive but pretty quiet day, with nothing major going on. The bulls still have the wind at their backs and are holding things up. The buyers seem to be aggressive at times but a little skittish as they debate whether to chase some of these stocks that have made tremendous moves. One stock of particular interest today is eFuture (EFUT). This stock was at 11 a week ago and is trading up 18.50 points to 48 at present, which is a market cap of about $120 million. The stock is a China-based software company that has revenue of about $5 million. Obviously this stock is not trading on fundamentals. It is a massive short squeeze/momentum play. What is interesting is that I can't recall seeing a move of this magnitude since the bubble days, when things like Ktel Records and Egghead Software went nuts...


Plays like these will make you physically ill until you get an unemotional system in place.

btw: You doubled your speculative cash in two weeks?

Good job!
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How many shorts can be squeezed on a daily basis to produce these kinds of swings? We're not talking about penny moves, we're talking about dollars moving like pennies...

And no, I didn't quite double, but in the 4 days I 'played' this stock, I am up 80% of my initial capital, so I'm almost to the point where I have nothing to lose on it, whatever it does next time.

The last day (yesterday) that I played this, I did see more lots going thru than the single lots I was seeing on previous days, so people ARE hopping on this train, and it will likely wreck soon.
I stick with teeny 100 share lots tho, because I fully expect that one day the manipulators will walk away, and that's all I'm willing to totally lose at a time.

Yes, it is an emotional trip the whole time, but I don't gamble enough on this to get bothered much. I'd be sick to my stomach if I did this daily with all my money, I don't know how people can stand to trade futures on margin.
 
I can't find the source, but about 97% of the dalily volume of the US markets is attributed to short term speculators, and only 3% to long term investors. Very roughly, this means that the 3% of the daily variance is explained by the underlying economical factors, and the rest 97% are the gyrations of the speculators to take money from each other. From this perspective, the markets are "manipulated" every single day and every single minute, and I don't attach any negative connotations to this word. It's all certainly perfectly legal.
 
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