Does the S & P always go up, over the long term ?

MKTrader said:
Mild, not incredible.
Understanding Momentum Investing - (alphaarchitect.com)

It all depends on the market cycle, which you can't predict. Sometimes stocks mean revert. Then it's costly to get rid of "dogs" about to recover and replace them with "strong stocks" that are about to underperform. It is good to get rid of stocks that continually drop and may eventually go bankrupt. But that's a quite small part of the index.
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I guess it depends on how actively you manage your portfolio. Buying stocks that are trending, cutting losses quickly and leting winners run has worked exceptionally well for me in the past 20 years.
 
mason macgregorson said:
do not think you nkow:

Only 86 of the original firms are still in the S&P 500 index; over 1100 replacements; up have no idea.
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Yes, over many decades. And it's quite presumptuous for a newbie who hasn't mastered basic grammar to tell me I have "no idea." If your crackpot theory were correct, the S&P 500 wouldn't have 50%+ drawdowns (it's happened twice in the last 20 years) or multi-year bear markets. They'd just magically replace weak stocks with strong stocks and it would go straight up. Yippee!!
 
MKTrader said:
Yes, over many decades. And it's quite presumptuous for a newbie who hasn't mastered basic grammar to tell me I have "no idea." If your crackpot theory were correct, the S&P 500 wouldn't have 50%+ drawdowns (it's happened twice in the last 20 years) or multi-year bear markets. They'd just magically replace weak stocks with strong stocks and it would go straight up. Yippee!!
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Grade F
 
Did my post get deleted or something? I can swear I answered this fucktarded question twice...

The SP goes only down over time. If the OP would simply pull up a 100-year chart, the evidence is clear. Short it now. All in, and you will be rich.

Why is this not science?
 
Overnight said:
In other words, it's pretty much the stupidest thread title question ever posted on this forum.
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Not very nice. Wasn’t looking for an elementary type answer, it was clearly more of a philosophical question to get some perspective of others. Which most others got the point. Of course you can see S&P has went up steady for as long as it’s been around…. To elaborate, should one quit trying to find an edge/unique strategy to trade, or just go Buffet and pile it in index and not worry about it, while using some leverage, long term options, etc. (not margin).
 
MKTrader said:
While the S&P 500 wasn't around during the 1929 crash, it took the Dow about 25 years to reach an all-time high again after the crash and Great Depression. Japan's Nikkei peaked in 1989 and is still below that level 33 years later.

So the best answer is the S&P 500 has always recovered from crashes in the past, but there's no guaranty for the future.
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33 years to get back to even would be a death knell. Ouch. Good example and perspective.
 
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