Does Technical Trading Really Work?

[Redneck]

What do you think TA is besides a set of tools?

It is simply information - objective information at that - for those who are / can remain detached

If you want a "blueprint" (by which I presume you mean a trading plan), then go to the Strategy Design forum, not the Technical Analysis forum.

The point of TA is to transform financial time-series data into forms that indicate some specific action should be taken. This generally suggests the blueprint to use all by itself, going far beyond your house building analogy. But that doesn't change the fact that a great deal of TA is subjective and thus giving rise to multiple interpretations (aka multiple blueprints).

People (traders in this instance) have a hard time maintaining objectivity (emotional maturity lacking / not developed)

Trading plan (in addition to other aspects) helps with - getting / remaining detached and objective

Unless one can't follow their own instructions


RN

 

[Pigsky]

Just have to say... how can you not love Nodoji's posts.... LOL

couldn't help but chuckle when I read this analogy....

"a razor-sharp scalpel for removing cash from the markets."

That line is literally begging for you-know-who to come in and challenge it...

LOLOL....

 

[hitchslap]

Once you know how to use the tools, the market simply gives away as much money as you feel like taking each day

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Once you know how to use the tools, the market simply gives away as much money as you feel like taking each day

I agree. no other business allows you to make money like this -- it's like being a cheater in a casino, kind of...and not being asked to leave.
(but of course, it's easier said than done.)

 

[Handle123]

Yes everything that's TA can be coded and if it can't then it's not TA.

LOL, almost anything can be coded including price action, Elliott wave, fibs, dividends and reactions, reports(one of my best automated programs) 99% of whatever you can dream up can be coded, some takes more time than others, but it can be coded, so your statement means 99% of all trading is TA based. Even fundamentals can be coded, we have done spread trading, options, you find a pattern, have rules, and even working on football fantasy numbers, all can be coded. It you going to trade well, you have to learn to program is bottom line, you have to know the stats, have to have huge sample size and going back ten years is great number to understand what the worst 99% of the time can happen.

 

[Eddiemorra]

Once you know how to use the tools, the market simply gives away as much money as you feel like taking each day

That's awesome. I'm jealous. Could you make a little extra for me tomorrow and paypal me the money?!!

 

[NoDoji]

What do you think TA is besides a set of tools? If you want a "blueprint" (by which I presume you mean a trading plan), then go to the Strategy Design forum, not the Technical Analysis forum.

The point of TA is to transform financial time-series data into forms that indicate some specific action should be taken. This generally suggests the blueprint to use all by itself, going far beyond your house building analogy. But that doesn't change the fact that a great deal of TA is subjective and thus giving rise to multiple interpretations (aka multiple blueprints).

Right, the technical patterns/indicators/price levels are tools and materials. They are not, however, the analyses that lead to a blueprint. The technical + the analysis = the blueprint for what "works".

The TA bashers here keep re-iterating commentary about candlesticks and patterns and indicators not working. Of course not! If a particular pattern or price bar or indicator ensured that if we buy or sell we'll make money, there'd be no market.

Objective analysis is possible once the particulars are defined.

I agree completely that at any point in time there can be multiple interpretations of which direction price is more likely to go between now and some future point in time, because everyone has different time horizons, different levels of risk/reward, different reasons for putting on trades (speculating, hedging). There can be a blueprint for a house, a plan for the landscaping, a master plan for the housing community, and so on.

Subjective trading can work just fine for some people. I'm just not one of those people. When I have stats to tell me what's more likely in a precisely defined environment, I'm less likely to micro-manage trades based on subjective concepts like "too high", "feels weak", "due for a winner", and "God, just help me get back to even and I swear I'll never move my stop that far away again".

This doesn't mean I feel comfortable with a lot of my trades. Often times I fall into a zone where a part of me is feeding me all sorts of interpretations of why I should skip this trade, and I hear my voice say out loud, "I'm supposed to place an order here" and then I simply do it. When that happens I found that it's best for me to then walk away for a few minutes so I don't pull the order.

 

[NoDoji]

I appreciated your earlier post which is the 1st indication I've ever seen that implied you're holding back on disclosing your most valuable intellectual property because I feel you're way too loose with what you disclose but I also understand your enthusiasm and genuine desire to give back to the community which helped you when you were starting.

I once had someone tell me to "shut the F up" with regard to sharing my stuff here because he felt I was revealing a lot of what we've worked so hard for. I felt that it was information anyone could find in a book or on the web, but I do realize in retrospect that I've been a bit loose with what I've shared, which is why I've backed off.

 

[kut2k2]

It is simply information - objective information at that - for those who are / can remain detached..

RN

It's not information until it's applied to data. Before that, it's a set of tools.

I get it. You want TA to be treated with respect so you claim it's all objective. That's a nice lovely fiction but a fiction nonetheless. TA is a messy hodge-podge of mostly adhoc techniques that were independently developed over centuries. As such, it is a collection of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Pretending there is only Good isn't historically factual, and it damages your credibility. I can easily reject a great deal of TA without rejecting all of it. Perhaps that is a nuance too far for some but I'm comfortable with it.

 

[romik]

Let's see what Surf's win ratio is so far with his superior Price Drivers that doesn't incorporate any technical analysis:

1 loss CMG
1 loss SHAK
1 SHAK trade still open
1 win in YM
1 loss YM
1 AMD trade still open