Does Technical Trading Really Work?

[i am nobody]

I beg to differ...it's generally the same idea...regardless of size.

I agree with you, it is the same idea. But with one HUGE difference: big sizers are more professional and are far more experienced in using TA, FA or charts.
TA, FA or charts are words that cover some techniques, but they don't make any difference between a newbie or a master in these techniques.
I would compare it with using Excel. Excel replaces here the word TA. I work with Excel and my son too. But I am a professional user of excel while my son just started. So the result is that with the same Excel software I can achieve much better performances than my son.

What I mean is that TA for me is not the same as TA for somebody else. Personal competence is the most influent parameter

 

[i am nobody]

Edge is the hard bit! We all use the same tools/charts.

There's only 1 poster on elitetrader who seems to have an edge. Posts his calls in the ESjournal.

A small but important correction: only one is know because he posts his trades.
There are surely more people with an edge on ET. But they probably think it is not so smart to post their trades here.
If you have an edge it is better not to post trades and protect your edge.
I personally prefer to make money above postings and losing my edge. Surely people would then confirm I have (HAD) an edge. But I prefer money above recognition. But for somepeople ego is too important.

 

[Eddiemorra]

There are surely more people with an edge on ET.

We'll never know I guess! lol.
Problem is that pretty much everyone seems to imply that they're a millionnaire trader with an amazing edge that turns the market into their own personal 'free money machine', so I tend to lump everyone into the same category unless there's some proof.

 

[wrbtrader]

Edge is the hard bit! We all use the same tools/charts.

There's only 1 poster on elitetrader who seems to have an edge. Posts his calls in the ESjournal.
And i've found 2 posters on bigmike who also seems have an edge.
Maybe 1 poster on trade2win but stopped posting a year or so ago.

I agree with i am nobody statement after your message in that many traders use the same tools but the results are different. Some are profitable and others are not and that's primarily due to different levels of experience, differences in learning/application ability, differences in risk management, differences in discipline and many other factors beyond trade signals.

Simply, the real edge involves how we manage those variables mentioned above regardless if using TA, PA, FA, Statistics, DOM or whatever.

The other impact is that traders do not use the same charts and do not use the same tools. The only commonality is the words charts and tools. I once wrote some useful info here at ET about the difference in chart setup involving how we setup the charts on our monitors in the realm of right brain/left brain...

Further a problem that's only seen when someone post a chart at a forum.

 

[pauk]

Trading the ES, i'm happy enough if I can make 10 points per day trading 20 contracts or so. Then have lots of spare time for hobbies

 

[dartmus]

do this over and over again. In short: relax trading, and most of the time just watching and waiting.

The key difference between you and others is you have a model with precise specifications so it's natural and or easy for you to follow a trading plan. You thoroughly understand your models while others aren't as skilled as you at creating models and defining specifications which separate the cases which are similar but different enough they would enable improvising around a series of variations of a concept.

The few like you who have succeeded restrict these improvising impulses to time spent creating and testing new models but my point is those who are successful at using TA are able to make a distinction between model building and formulating a trading plan while those who fail aren't able to distinguish much difference between the two and often spend their time defining a trading plan before they've defined the model of what it is they're planning on trading. In many cases this model building phase of the process is skipped entirely.

 

[i am nobody]

Trading the ES, i'm happy enough if I can make 10 points per day trading 20 contracts or so. Then have lots of spare time for hobbies

99.99% here will never reach 10 points a day. But if you reach 5 points you only have to double size to have the same amount of money.

 

[dartmus]

I tend to lump everyone into the same category unless there's some proof.

Someday you will see proof within small nuances that will be much more valuable to you at that time than the proof you require today.

 

[Eddiemorra]

Trading the ES, i'm happy enough if I can make 10 points per day trading 20 contracts or so. Then have lots of spare time for hobbies

I'm hoping to do that, too.
10 points per day sounds good! Even just trading 5 contracts would do me!

 

[candles]

99.99% here will never reach 10 points a day.

Peasants! I make 10 points in the first few hours most days