Does Technical Trading Really Work?

volpunter said:
I hope that is for your own and that you do not sell this BS to your customers within your Global Asset Management arm of XXXX.
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It worked 2 weeks ago, maybe it could work again?
Thanks to total luck of course because as you assume, "TA doesn't work".

CM
 
speedo said:
Yeah, you don't want someone rationalizing a bad trade but on the other hand, many of our winners spend some time in the red. I used to talk myself out of staying in due to perceived weakness (or strength if short) after the entry or lengthy time in the trade but I've found the best results over time is to stick with a trade that has not violated my stop.
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Stop placement is as much art as science. Regardless, there are always situations where you'd have been better off to have had your stop tighter/looser... and no way to know in advance.
 
Scataphagos said:
Stop placement is as much art as science. Regardless, there are always situations where you'd have been better off to have had your stop tighter/looser... and no way to know in advance.
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There are no magic bullets, only edges and proper behavior.
 
TA does not work in itself. Of course it does not to any rationally thinking person, because past prices do not have crystal balls between their little OHLC or Candlestick legs. But I let you in on a secret: There is a concept called momentum or more scientifically "cointegration" and it basically is a reflection of human beings reacting to new information to varying degrees and with different lags. That is precisely why you often observe price inertia in the absence of new information that adversely affect present velocity. TA in all its expressions is by definition lagging and simply reflects the present at some time in the future. So, sure, as long as an extremely strong trend manifests itself you will realize that (of course later than everyone else) via the application of TA. Mean reversion approaches are even more esoteric in that mean reversion TA basically tries to push the repeating pattern of moon phase methodology (every now and then we see a "full moon") into a financial market that reacts in real-time to constantly arriving news/events/market impacting items. But if it works for you awesome, at least I am glad I do not invest and bank with HSBC.

Chris Mac said:
It worked 2 weeks ago, maybe it could work again?
Thanks to total luck of course because as you assume, "TA doesn't work".

CM
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