Does Technical Analysis Work in Commodities and FX?

Quote from cornix:

Doubt even 5% of total turn over in FX and major futures, such as ES, FESX and FI instruments.
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maybe we're talking apples and oranges

the 2011 reports state 90% of all trades were made by small retail
 
Quote from oldtime:

maybe we're talking apples and oranges

the 2011 reports state 90% of all trades were made by small retail
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Probably if we measure quantity of traders. But that's completely irrelevant to market action, because only those players who really move the market, matter. And in FX those are mainly top banks then corporations, which do a lot of international business, like VW and like that. Doubt retail traders altogether may move the Euro more than a few ticks any way during London session.
 
Quote from TheMagican:

maybe?i thought it would always be like that
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well, there's the trade, and then there's size of the trade

so a million 100k lots are bought and sold all day and all night then one 1 billion trade is made

I guess it just depends on how you want to do your math and calculate who you are trading against
 
Quote from cornix:

Probably if we measure quantity of traders. But that's completely irrelevant to market action, because only those players who really move the market, matter. And in FX those are mainly top banks then corporations, which do a lot of international business, like VW and like that. Doubt retail traders altogether may move the Euro more than a few ticks any way during London session.
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I doubt VW is dumping Euros based on something they heard on CNBC, yet it happpens everyday, and more than just a few pips
 
Quote from oldtime:

well, there's the trade, and then there's size of the trade

so a million 100k lots are bought and sold all day and all night then one 1 billion trade is made

I guess it just depends on how you want to do your math and calculate who you are trading against
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SWFX pool alone has liquidity of like 150-200MM per side not further than a single full pip away. Now combine it with other pools and calculate how far 1B notional trade would push the market. Of course in reality it's never a million 100K lots going in the same trade exactly.
 
Quote from oldtime:

I doubt VW is dumping Euros based on something they heard on CNBC, yet it happpens everyday, and more than just a few pips
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Of course not based on CNBC, but their own analysis. Which doesn't change the fact large players heavily dominate FX, not retail.
 
That's why TA is far superior to anything else (except inside from ECB/Fed maybe, but that edge is unavailable to most for obvious reasons). You see what really happens, what big boys do, buy or sell, not try to guess the actions of top players.
 
Quote from cornix:

Of course not based on CNBC, but their own analysis. Which doesn't change the fact large players heavily dominate FX, not retail.
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they dominate the big move, but not the day to day minute to minute crap

all that noise is just little itty bitty guys like me

90% of all those trades are made by small retail (or at lest it was in 2011, which was not much different from 2010, haven't seen what happened in 2012)
 
Quote from oldtime:

they dominate the big move, but not the day to day minute to minute crap

all that noise is just little itty bitty guys like me

90% of all those trades are made by small retail (or at lest it was in 2011, which was not much different from 2010, haven't seen what happened in 2012)
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Nope. :)

Those small moves are mostly banks churning the volume (as their edge is not directional, but rather market-making mostly, they suck overall in directional trades) and algos.

Forget "retail traders" in major FX pairs.

We don't mean anything there, especially considering we all trade differently. And that's great, because liquidity is truly bottomless in the Euro, we can no way affect it so our edge remains. :p
 
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