outside pretcher and a few other perma bears show me anyone thinking we can fall 15-20% by year end. 20% is only giving back 1/3 of the massive run.i read 100's of articles and watch cnbc and many other shows and i'd say 95% are raging bulls. et is always somewhat bearish because most people trade for a living and see the lies and manipulation of the mkt and it taints them. forget the talk and look at the what people are doing. short interest has collapsed 7 straight months and is at levels of 2007. put to call ratios have tanked as people are petrified to buy puts.investor intelligence is showing raging bull ratios. EARNINGS FOR THE 3RD QTR THREW FRIDAY ARE DOWN 19% YEAR OVER YEAR. so please excuse the 2% of the world who dares to question a 65% world record rally that takes p/e's back to 25 with no growth.if you which to say many people are bearish then continue kidding yourself
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Does SPY gapped filled mean end of rally?
- Thread starter flipper me
- Start date
Some are of the opinion that this financial crisis was overhyped. A few weak players are gone, but the survivors (GS, JPM) are doing great. Large-cap techs are doing great. If not for that little diversion over the past 18 months, SPY would be at 190 now, if you consider that we're in a secular bull market that started in 2003. I can easily see SPY at 130 by the end of the year.
wow your statements are misleading as hell. for every company you say is doing well i can name 25 that are doing terrible. yes apple,amzn and goog doing well. all unique co's. msft and intc's earnings and rev's were down 10-20% year over year so forget the hype on them. gs and jpm only did well because of taxpayer money and the massive rally in stocks. bac,wfc,usb,rf,sti and c did terrible year over year. cats earnings and rev's down 50%, whirlpools earnings and rev's down 20-50%. mmm rev's and earnings down 15%. . s@p earnings are down 18% so far this qtr year over year AND ARE NOW DOWN AROUND 45% FROM THE PEAK OF EARNINGS 18 MONTHS AGO. the mkt is down much less than earnings are from the highs. plus you refuse to incorporate the trillion of $'s of free money generated from home equity loans and free credit to all that is gone forever and will be no be there for the economy to grow. throw in higher taxes and massive deleveraging, high unemployment and we're screwed for years to come. those are the facts. you're getting caught up in the better than low balled to death hype.
Thank you very much for the chart!Quote from NoProblem:
You're right in that there is no other gap to fill.
As far as heading lower for good, that could be, and I tend to agree, but we've not closed below 107.33 yet and possible bearish wedge is not confirmed yet either.
Here's a chart:
Clearly shows the 2 pt gap, and also shows that it was completely filled.
Quote from swtrader:
seriously though, i've never seen anything like this
no matter what, it goes up
It really isn't a case of no matter what. It's quite simple really. The dollar has been falling, hence the market will go up. When the dollar strengthens the market will retreat. That's the way it's been for a long time. In constant dollars the market has not gone up very much.
Quote from Optional:
Its not a bull market at all. The dollar is collapsing. Its called inflation. Price the Dow in anything other than dollars and it sucks. Unchanged year over year. Down 80 percent from the 2000 highs in real terms.
Yes, of course, you have it right. But the pundits in the media, they only look at the markets nominal value.
the earnings season is rigged. the companies are providing the guidance. this week there will be more gap ups than gap downs for reporting co's. ubfortunately, this season you cannot hang your hat on "earnings disappointments" as rationale for a decline.Quote from jnorty:
EARNINGS FOR THE 3RD QTR THREW FRIDAY ARE