Does Probability exist?
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that makes sense, thank you! Yes, across multiple entries knowing the odds definitely works. However, if you go all in because a trade has 85% odds of winning, it doesn't make sense to act on the odds. the problem on this site is parrotbot and the other deluded souls who throw around these terms without understanding how to calculate
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You're certainly among the disbelievers with respect to whether consistently profitable retail day trading is possible. And your beliefs seem to be firmly set in stone. In those regards you're an extreme skeptic or "hard-lined skeptic", if you'd prefer.
I don't fully believe any claims made here, but do make balanced judgements over time as to the true nature of posters' claims and motives. It does seem, at least to me, that it's a minority who make false claims about their accomplishments.
Please continue providing these conversational pivots, regardless of how far from the median they are. This forum like the market benefits from liquidity.
Yours respectfully
Thanks. I want to believe its possible, and indeed it is with substantial capital and a flexible edge. Yes it is the minority-- the majority is here to learn or pass along real knowledge. It just so happens that the losers are the most verbose about what they do.
My disbelief comes from many years of interacting with traders --- it just isn't what I "feel" or "think"--- I mean, seriously, we have parrotbots making claims and statements based on stuff written in the 1940's-- then when challenged to provide testable parameters, it never happens. , It's quite clear this material is nonsense, self contradictory as well as not possible to provide consistentcy when traded in real life---
Here's something cool I ran across at the EmergeAmericah new tech conference in Miami Beach yesterday regarding trading contests-- a real money contest like they have in fantasy sports using real data-- www.worldseriesoftrading.com Wonder if anyone here will try it? heck, the price is right and the upside can be phat. not to mention real bragging rights! should be a piece of cake for the parrotbots --- we all know they are short on risk capital, so here is the chance to prove me wrong........... surf
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Reminds me of the long-ago TIME magazine cover story called "Does Evil Exist?" Easily one of their worst productions ever.
I'm still learning the game so this is an honest question. What mistakes do people continue to make and where can I start to learn how to take advantage?
That's a tall order, but "start" is a key element here. Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds is a go-to beginning, along with The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind.
At some point, you will also want to begin learning about yourself and your own fears. As we are more alike than we are different, examining the Self goes a long way toward understanding how traders participate in the auction market. The process is also an essential beginning to learning how to trade emotionlessly. Once one is able to do that, the emotions and emotional responses of others become far more clear.
As for the specific subject of fear, you can begin with Appendix F here, but of course there is a vast array of books, articles, monographs, etc. on this subject. One runs into repetition fairly quickly, though, and most people just want an introduction. This appendix is brief, as is the attached, which I wrote nearly twenty years ago. It's not exhaustive, but it's only ten pages, and it's small enough to upload here given the restrictions imposed on file sizes.
Both the above books are available for free at Amazon and/or Gutenberg.
Hi Will,
Welcome to the world of guru speak. Guru speak is the use of platitudes and feel good, simple sayings that sound right and seem to make sense. However, when analysed are meaningless. Let me use the statement you are referencing as an example.
For every trade there is a winner and loser. Money is not created, it is transfered from the loser to the winner. Therefore, what mistake was made that could be exploited by an observer of the activity? By definition, the winner in everytrade is already exploiting the mistakes of the loser and vice versa.
peace. Surf
Ps-- while some of the books listed are interesting from a macro standpoint, they will not help you making decisions or to think correctly about the market. May i suggest- practical speculation by niederhoffer, trade like a hedge fund by altucher and options perceptions deceptions by charles cottle rather than reading the books full of platitudes and history
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