Does it still make sense to invest in SPY longterm?

A

antares66

Everyone knows that we come from a 12-13 years lasting bullmarket. A lot of people arent´t invested because of risk fears. Does it make sense to invest in SPY right now or should you wait for a setback because the market is on all time high?
The worst thing what could happen is to invest on all time high to watch the market crashing down some months later like during the dotcom crash 2000-2003. Ok you could hedge your position with put options but i don´t exactly know how to manage this when intending to invest $ 50,000 in SPY (example)
 
no idea.

it has appreciated by 6X since 2009 and
2X since Apr 2020.


years ago, S&P emini futures was only 5 digits.
now it is 6 digits.

What we know with 100% certainty
is the market will crash one day.
 
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The index value will rise over a multi-decades period. An investment in the index value for less than this is guess-work.

Alternatively, trade in and out on the long-side only on a multi-day time-frame.
 
antares66 said:
A lot of people arent´t invested because of risk fears. Does it make sense to invest in SPY right now?
The worst thing what could happen is to invest on all time high to watch the market crashing down some months later
More...

reasons_to_sell.png
 
Given the terrible situation the world is in, I still have a very hard time understanding why the market continues up. But I said that 18 months ago, too.

With 5 million dead from a pandemic, 30-year high inflation, record unemployed, higher taxes coming from socialist democrats, low consumer spending.... yet the market rallies..... makes zero sense.

So I follow the SPY daily, but would never buy it here (not a reco). I daytrade gappers and breakouts, and inverses like UVXY TZA etc. I expect to make a lot of money trading inverses when a correction or crash occurs, but mostly cash here.
 
Well the pandemic is mostly only bad for retail, travel, restaurants etc.

Most of the heavy hitters in S&P 500 or Dow are not even affected much. In fact, they might even benefit from the surge of retail investors.
 
GotherL said:
Well the pandemic is mostly only bad for retail, travel, restaurants etc.

Most of the heavy hitters in S&P 500 or Dow are not even affected much. In fact, they might even benefit from the surge of retail investors.
More...

The pandemic injected 6-7 trillion dollars of government handouts and personal savings which will ultimately find itself in the stock market.
 
KCalhoun said:
Given the terrible situation the world is in, I still have a very hard time understanding why the market continues up. But I said that 18 months ago, too.

With 5 million dead from a pandemic, 30-year high inflation, record unemployed, higher taxes coming from socialist democrats, low consumer spending.... yet the market rallies..... makes zero sense.

So I follow the SPY daily, but would never buy it here (not a reco). I daytrade gappers and breakouts, and inverses like UVXY TZA etc. I expect to make a lot of money trading inverses when a correction or crash occurs, but mostly cash here.
More...
I agree with that. My gut feeling prevents me from investing here. On the monthly chart the movement from 04.2020 seems nearly parabolic.
 
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