does it EVER make sense to buy and hold a 3X bull ETF ?

[Buy1Sell2]

One more point to make here---- The reason that performance will tend to lag a bit on the 3X futures versus the physical commodity is the fact that futures contracts have decay of carrying charges etc to overcome. Gains will be a little less when up and losses perhaps quite a bit greater when down. ----Once again though, you used physical versus futures where I used futures against futures which is the appropriate method.

 

[Sig]

Thank you for making the point for me. There is a strong correlation between the underlying and the 3X derivative. In your examples you make no allowance for the 3X on th underlying. It's all shown at single phasing. The point is, there is no divergence where the Bull fund reacts differently in price direction than the single phase underlying times 3. ---You did not use futures here but instead used the physical spot price as the underlying. Surely, you would understand that whereas GLD is physical bullion, that UGLD is futures contracts with carrying charges etc. ---Still a very strong correlation here and would be even stronger using futures versus futures. --The evidence that you have presented only makes my case stronger.

Let's be clear here because even reading charts seems to be challenging to you. I showed you a chart where the price of gold went up 3%, the 3X fund went down 7%. At this point it's clear you don't understand futures either (you do know that futures matches spot on the day of expiration, don't you?), so let me explain. If you'd had a 3 times margin future position you would have had a 9% positive return. If you invested in the 3X fund you would have received a 7% negative return. In no universe does that even come close to making your point, unless your point is that you're completely clueless! Once again, I've shown multiple examples that show you're wrong and you have yet to show even a single example where you're explanation is correct, let alone display that you've read a prospectus or modeled anything.

At this point it's clear that you're on the far left of the Dunning Kruger effect curve, you simply don't have enough intelligence to have the ability to realize how little intelligence you have. Please, invest away with your incorrect information, I only hope to be your counter party! We'll all be ignoring you here from this point on though, you not only have nothing to add but you're intellectually lazy as well.

 

[vanzandt]

Let's be clear here because even reading charts seems to be challenging to you. I showed you a chart where the price of gold went up 3%, the 3X fund went down 7%. At this point it's clear you don't understand futures either (you do know that futures matches spot on the day of expiration, don't you?), so let me explain. If you'd had a 3 times margin future position you would have had a 9% positive return. If you invested in the 3X fund you would have received a 7% negative return. In no universe does that even come close to making your point, unless your point is that you're completely clueless! Once again, I've shown multiple examples that show you're wrong and you have yet to show even a single example where you're explanation is correct, let alone display that you've read a prospectus or modeled anything.

At this point it's clear that you're on the far left of the Dunning Kruger effect curve, you simply don't have enough intelligence to have the ability to realize how little intelligence you have. Please, invest away with you incorrect information, I only hope to be your counter party! We'll all be ignoring you here from this point on though, you not only have nothing to add but you're intellectually lazy as well.

8 pages of "blah blah blah" when one post would have sufficed.
The answer is f'ing NO!
Close the thread.

 

[Sig]

8 pages of "blah blah blah" when one post would have sufficed.
The answer is f'ing NO!
Close the thread.

You're right. I get carried away sometimes and I'm clearly slower than most to realize I'm trying to reason with the human equivalent of a chat bot!

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The fact that you don't recognize the reason that physical underlying cannot be compared with futures makes this a conversation not worth continuance. -Most readers will understand it though. The truth is that it certainly does make sense at times to buy and hold a 3X Bull ETF. ( By the way, GLD is up .92 year over year, not 3.02).
---Final mic drop---

 

[vanzandt]

The fact that you don't recognize the reason that physical underlying cannot be compared with futures makes this a conversation not worth continuance. -Most readers will understand it though. The truth is that it certainly does make sense at times to buy and hold a 3X Bull ETF. ( By the way, GLD is up .92 year over year, not 3.02).
---Final mic drop---

Well, not sure how different people define buy and hold... but here's Direxion 3x etf Gold Miners Bull and Bear for the last 12 months. One (Bull) went from $36 to $8. The (Bear) went from $190 to $15.
Here's a list of all their sector 3X ETFS. Its all the same. Take your pick.
https://www.thebalance.com/a-list-of-3x-leveraged-etfs-1214924
These things are made for very short term hedging. PERIOD. To advise otherwise is foolish.

 

[murray t turtle]

The Long Term Behaviour of Leveraged ETFs

There is a big myth about leveraged ETFs that has been recently propagated in the media. This article corrects the myth and explains the faulty reasoning that gave rise to it.

The myth is:

Leveraged ETFs are not suitable for long term buy and hold

This myth is expressed in various ways. Some quotes from the internet about leveraged ETFs:

“unsuitable for buy-and-hold investing,” “leveraged ETFs are bound to deteriorate,” “over time the compounding will kill,” “leveraged ETFs verge on insanity,” “levered ETFs are toxic,” “levered ETFs [are] a horrible idea,” “…practically guarantees losses,” “in the long run [investors] are almost sure to lose money,” “anyone holding these funds for the long term is an uneducated lame-brain.” “Warning: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Kill Portfolios.”

There is even an article comparing these ETFs to swine flu.

These claims are not backed up with mathematics and data. This article rectifies that deficiency and finds that the claims are false.

%%
NOT sure i see the swine flu connection, but you made some good points; maybe i should study the gold chart more on this thread ?? LOL

Right on holding a ''Leveraged + Inverse ETFs Kill Por.....'' ANY derivative is like another derivative , in the sense, you better find a good trend. So '' yes it makes sense to buy + hold , if you know how to trade/invest''

NOT sure if it makes sense to hold them for daytrading,LOL, but op did not title/name it that