Does gold need a breather?
- Thread starter peilthetraveler
- Start date
40 years ago a new Ford Mustang cost about $2,200 dollars or priced in gold...about 62 oz at the time. A Ford Mustang today costs about $40k brand new today.
So if i put $2,200 in a bank account 40 years ago and let it sit, I would have $7,176 in my bank account that would barely put a down payment on that car today. If I had bought $2,200 worth of gold 40 years ago, I would have $72k which would be more than enough to buy the car and have money left over.
How about stocks though? The dow was at about 900 40 years ago. Today its 10,400 for about a 1,150% return on investment.
Gold was 35$ 40 years ago and its $1165 today, for about a 3,333% return...3 times MORE than stocks.
So if gold bulls dont really "make" money, than neither do long term investors.
Luckily though we are all traders so we are the ones that get to make all the money.
First of all, you mentioned two contrary signs. "Cash 4 Gold" makes the public SELLERS not BUYERS of gold. No educated bullion investor would ever use those shops. Yet the dumb public is selling their jewelry and even bullion passed down to them from their parents/grandparents at astronomical discounts to the spot. So how exactly is being long gold a crowded trade if the public is selling gold?
Second, do your family members or co-workers own any gold? Have they bought any recently or ever before? It's probably redundant to ask, but do you own any or have you? I think it's obvious you have none and never had. Many people talk how gold is going up but when I question whether they have any or are they buying, I get nothing in return. I recommend some routes and they do nothing. I advised one friend on where to buy bullion with his 300k signing bonus back when Gold was in $800s. He never did it.
It's a strange pattern that I notice.
Third of all, go read any Yahoo message board on any stock that had news. You will get the same array of info as zerohedge comments. Please go check just how many "invest in stocks/bonds/real estate" articles and news are out there.
Like I said before, when I see "Gold 4 Cash" signs instead of "Cash 4 Gold" then I will know it's time to get out. It seems that you do not understand what a crowded trade is as well as bubbles that have to pop. There has to be a distribution to the retail crowd and that has not occurred.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
40 years ago a new Ford Mustang cost about $2,200 dollars or priced in gold...about 62 oz at the time. A Ford Mustang today costs about $40k brand new today.
So if i put $2,200 in a bank account 40 years ago and let it sit, I would have $7,176 in my bank account that would barely put a down payment on that car today. If I had bought $2,200 worth of gold 40 years ago, I would have $72k which would be more than enough to buy the car and have money left over.
How about stocks though? The dow was at about 900 40 years ago. Today its 10,400 for about a 1,150% return on investment.
Gold was 35$ 40 years ago and its $1165 today, for about a 3,333% return...3 times MORE than stocks.
So if gold bulls dont really "make" money, than neither do long term investors.
Luckily though we are all traders so we are the ones that get to make all the money.
You're quoting the gold numbers at the top of a bubble. It's like coming about a year ago and saying oil is the best investment ever because you're quoting the % return at $140.
Cash for gold. What is that an advertisement for? Someone wants to BUY your gold. They're soliciting for people willing to sell because they want to BUY. That's BUYERS working to find sellers. It's the sellers that are the rare commodity.
Yes, I own 50 peso gold coins from an inheritance. No, I'm not selling them any time soon.
Yes, many co-workers and family members have actually bought gold (no physical gold though, mostly GLD).
It comes down to your opinion vs my opinion. You can't prove it has room to run any more than I can prove it's overcrowded. We can agree to disagree and say happy trading and good luck to each other.
A 1969 Ford Mustang is technology and safety wise about as good or bad a car as a $7,146 Chinese garbage car you can buy today.
So if you had let your $2,200 sit in a bank account and collect interest for 40 years you could buy a car today that is at least as good if not better than the car you could afford 40 years ago.
You keep missing the concept of the PUBLIC selling. Someone is always buying and someone is always selling, no matter where the price goes.
You really need to educate yourself.
The Cash 4 Gold guys, by the way, all end up having the two or three refineries, if not one, that smelts it into COMEX grade bars for delivery. I do not see retail folks involved in any of that process.
Hmm so you are super bearish on Gold but you won't sell your gold pesos. Very interesting. Aren't you afraid of the impending gold crash? You might want to exchange those overvalued gold pesos into the undervalued USD.
GLD, lol. It's just paper and has been suspected of lying about their holdings. It's not convertible into real bullion, unlike Gold futures. And GLD has always been recommended as part of the portfolio by the super savvy financial advisers.
You're making it out like every Joe Shmoe is out there running to buy up Gold & Silver, when the truth is that it is opposite.
Ok...lets use 20 years ago and see where we are at because in 1990 there was no gold bubble and there was no stock market bubble. From 40 years ago to 20 years ago. Dow was at 2600 then. So Dow went from 900 to 2600 which is about a 190% return over those 20 years. Gold from $35 to 400 which is over 1100% return.
If you bought the 1969 Ford mustang and never drove it and just let it sit in the garage for 40 years, I bet you could sell it for at least what a new ford mustang would sell for today.