Does Geometry moves the stock market as gann puts it ?


Quote from harrytrader:

I agree with you as perceived correlation doesn't mean "true" correlation: if something is truly random walk then the perceived correlation is fake correlation wich is mathematically called "persistency" since at least the statistician Levy has established it's law: see the thread
"Arcsinus law: distinguishing trend from persistency of chance "
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=22256&highlight=persistency+and+trend

And what is true for "perceived trend" is also true for "perceived pattern" which can be as fake pattern as fake trend above when it is in fact persistency, that is to say you will find trendline, head & shoulders, triangles etc (more or less other complicated perceived patterns)... even in a random generated price.

So when I am talking of patterns I'm not talking about illusionary (only perceived) patterns but about true patterns. What true patterns mean OPERATIONALLY speaking ? It is about probability of predicting them in advance not only that they can occur but that they will occur at a precise level because if you only say they will be a trendline or triangle the probability will be high that it will be true even with random prices.

The basic premisces of believing that there is no true pattern is logical: it is because there are so many market participants the stock market can only be random (even it is non-normal law so random is used here in the sense there is a probability law or universe) and so the patterns are illusionary. For example if you see a trendline or a triangle pattern occurs well it could occur by random at any price. But what if it occurs at a level that you can predict before the pattern even appears ? Then maybe it is not random because you can estimate the probability of making such a prediction by randomness: it is very low (again whatever probability distribution you would assume normal or not the order of the probability will stay low) and above all if your prediction is repeatable with the same accuracy then you can apply Bayes law of compounding probability and the probability will be very very very low so that it will requires more than the age of Universe to realise all the predictions just by random.

Now this is a school hypothesis as traditional TA can only see patterns AFTER the fact so that it doesn't prove much scientifically, but I can affirm that's what I CAN REALISE with my model. As it is not an urgency for me to demonstrate anything except for fun, I won't do it yet as it requires supplement work from me that doesn't really serve my trading because I don't base my trading on traditional patterns but on my own model's patterns which I called "design-pattern" that exist BEFORE market occurs to distinguish from patterns that appear AFTER market occurs. But one day I should do it when I will have time to collect all the datas from my model for that and from classical ta patterns.
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Let's take yesterday for example. This is not a proof just an illustration of what I mean: we can see a clear trendline that is not horizontal but has a little slope upward ... (I will come back after market to continue).

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I never read calendar news still I will come back this evening :D.

Quote from harrytrader:

Let's take yesterday for example. This is not a proof just an illustration of what I mean: we can see a clear trendline that is not horizontal but has a little slope upward ... (I will come back after market to continue).

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=470884>
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Quote from harrytrader:

What % success rate did you achieve so far for your predictions ?
I mean levels, separate from patterns.

If I told you the % it would be so high you won't believe it : I could beat Gann's Legend... :D

Now don't consider that I made a claim as long as I haven't finished the stats. And I don't do stats only for the pleasure of admiring how great I am or for showing them to others but for automating the process decision as I said in another thread. At the moment the stats for just one design-pattern is very detailed (the picture below will give you an idea) and I won't try to explain at the moment what the columns and abbreviations mean, I will make a more simplified version for the public in a few months. When I say public I intend in fact to restrict to only hedge funds managers or very high profile traders. But I'm not really decided yet what I will do: it can be dangerous to give this weapon to some of them and I don't really see if it is my best interest. >
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I would believe you because I understand from my own research that successful " hit " does not need to be right on and certain tolerance must be applied according to recent situation.

You are overdoing your research. No matter what your simulated results might be, what counts is real money trading. You have to get past that hurdle .

To offer your method to a hedge fund is a bad idea. Your best bet is an individual well capitalized trader willing to trade your method for real.

You could start " Harry's levels " journal and see who might be interested to create trading record for your method . Your method should be working well though.
 
Quote from harrytrader:
Now don't consider that I made a claim as long as I haven't finished the stats. And I don't do stats only for the pleasure of admiring how great I am or for showing them to others but for automating the process decision as I said in another thread. At the moment the stats for just one design-pattern is very detailed (the picture below will give you an idea) and I won't try to explain at the moment what the columns and abbreviations mean, I will make a more simplified version for the public in a few months. When I say public I intend in fact to restrict to only hedge funds managers or very high profile traders. But I'm not really decided yet what I will do: it can be dangerous to give this weapon to some of them and I don't really see if it is my best interest. I am not new in futures trading but I'm new as a professional so I'm still thinking about what I should or should not do and I hesitate much because you know my point of view about this industry is an organised crookery: I don't want to cope with crooks and would prefer then to stay alone.
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You are admired for making simple thing complicated and unfathomable.
 
Quote from mg_mg:

You are admired for making simple thing complicated and unfathomable.
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that should some what apply to Grob, for Harry it is more like

You are admired for making simple thing complicated...
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:D
 
I'm not a beginner in Business. Each time I have worked with a small client it's not worth: they are unorganised you must explain them everything so that the time and cost you projected is double the initial one. I have lost 3 millions francs with small clients in supplement cost to pay salaries to my employees. With big clients with more than 50 millions francs I had never any problem.

Secondly I have invested one and half million francs cash for this project alone It's not for proposing a service to a bunch of novice traders, it's for my own trading. Initially I projected to create a hedge fund, nevertheless I'm not ready to do so as I am entering the trading business, I consider I am too novice for that. So my idea at the moment is to propose rather a service to some hedge funds. My purpose is in fact a progressive partnership based on performance revised each year. Let's say a hedge fund is at the 300th in world place. If I make them achieve to be among the tenth first hedge fund in the World in term of performance my fee will be indexed on that base.


Quote from Walther:

To offer your method to a hedge fund is a bad idea. Your best bet is an individual well capitalized trader willing to trade your method for real.

You could start " Harry's levels " journal and see who might be interested to create trading record for your method . Your method should be working well though.
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If I wanted to address the novice traders here I would have to copy some the marketing recipes I can read from time to time:

"The Quantum Secret Formula forgotten for 5000 years rediscovered recently by Dr Arnold, PhD. (mentioning the PhD is crucial for marketing purpose)" :D.

And of course you would add this to reassure people:

- No quick and rich scheme just simple common sense (so that the pigeon is being reassured it's not a scam)

- Talk of discipline, psychology, etc... that's make things appeal to people but stay fuzzy so that you can embrace as much people as you can

- Be sure to please everyone, say yes to all, in conclusion be a commercial :D


Quote from harrytrader:

I'm not a beginner in Business. Each time I have worked with a small client it's not worth: they are unorganised you must explain them everything so that the time and cost you projected is double the initial one. I have lost 3 millions francs with small clients in supplement cost to pay salaries to my employees. With big clients with more than 50 millions francs I had never any problem.

Secondly I have invested one and half million francs cash for this project alone It's not for proposing a service to a bunch of novice traders, it's for my own trading. Initially I projected to create a hedge fund, nevertheless I'm not ready to do so as I am entering the trading business, I consider I am too novice for that. So my idea at the moment is to propose rather a service to some hedge funds. My purpose is in fact a progressive partnership based on performance revised each year. Let's say a hedge fund is at the 300th in world place. If I make them achieve to be among the tenth first hedge fund in the World in term of performance my fee will be indexed on that base.
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Quote from harrytrader:

...so that the time and cost you projected is double the initial one...
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Now that's funny to hear it from someone with almost 4 thousand posts.
 
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