Yup, have seen on many occassions sometimes a minor wave is counted, sometimes a minor wave is excluded, it all depending on the hindsight curve fitted analysis at the time.
Does Elliott Wave Theory actually work?
- Thread starter Vincent S. Ashmore
- Start date
I call my trades in advance to attest to the fact that my wave theory is anything but a bunch of baloney!
L
lovethetrade
This was incorrect. However, I still don't like it, it's not the best way of capturing price movements.
I am not understanding how moving averages show what investors versus traders are doing? A bigger moving average doesn't mean buy and hold, it just means it's calculating figures from further away.
The preferred way to use loads of moving averages is to calculate the area between them and graph that however you have to make sure this is increasing or decreasing for all of them. By checking if it's above or below zero you know either buy or sell. Or just graph the slope of them. I'm not sure which one it was. Some person said it's possible to do this for a hundred moving averages together. Each indicator is the same anyway. Every formula shows the same thing. This shows expanding trends and stuff. All the moving average reduced to a single indicator. And still useless.
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As best I could tell, this was just an assumption made by Guppy. My impression is that it was simply based on gut intuition and that there was almost nothing mathematical or scientific about it.
Personally, I use one specific moving average to give me the average overall direction of price from day to day. I use another to signal when the general intra-day direction of price reverses direction to join the overall day-to-day trend, and yet another to identify when this is happening on a minute-to-minute bases.
For example, when EURUSD fell from around 1.1957 to about 1.1895, it was going against the longer trend, but it corrected this contrary behavior somewhere between 1.1895 and where it is now, which is why I bought the pair.
(This is an oversimplification because I use one additional moving average and also incorporate moving average envelopes as well.)
From my point of view, Elliott Wave Theory seems to involve a lot of “guessing” and it, along with Gupy’s Multiple Moving Averages, strikes me as approximating how price is behaving as opposed to relying on measurements that reflect price direction based on a statistical analysis of all the possible options to arrive at the single BEST option at a particular point in time and for a particular set of circumstances.
When I was starting to trade I sat in an EWT class for an hour a week for ~3 years.
I rarely use it anymore. When it fits, it works beautifully. IMO there is a general truth/usefulness to it, but...
I don't think it matters if you are trading indicators, EWT, patterns, simple Price Action. There are successful traders using each of those.
IMO success is more likely to come from what Xela and The Mickey might be talking about -- getting the psychology/perspective right and having a simplified system.
....
For years I had "trading plans" that were mostly technical. Indicators or EWT or Patterns or PA. Whatever.
Very little about the process of learning to trade: Getting the perspective that deals with greed/fear, and also making the shift mentally/emotionally to... where what originally is counter-intuitive becomes the obvious and easiest way to trade.
Dealing with Greed/Fear and counter-intuitive thinking is not easy.
Until I dealt with those things, no trading plan or system worked.
How many beginning traders consciously put those things in a plan?
Without them do you even have a plan?
Each is a process and takes time to master.
Soooo... how would you put these in a plan? Set goals? Break things down into small steps with measurable outcomes?
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All is said.
A simple (but not simplistic) system and good attitude (humility / discipline / self-control) are roots to success.
First step : find a system that works and that you can apply. Test it / refine it during weeks / months / years. Backtest / Demo
Second step : when you are confident, play small, increase regularly your stack, don't be greedy.
CM
Unfortunately, according to my numbers, EURUSD turned bearish at about 7:55 a.m. GMT.
) .