Does Elliott Wave Theory actually work?
- Thread starter Vincent S. Ashmore
- Start date
Not really a good reply maxinger. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, do you have any real time calls? Anyone can pull up a zillion hindsight charts to back up a theory, that's what this EW discussion is largely about, debunking past wave counts/ trades moves which can be curve fitted to a ideology.
Back to the OP's original query, in sum, there is no magic indicator or magic number for wave counts or Rsi, Stochastic, OBV, MA, or any TA indicator for that matter. Throw out all your indicators and stick to simple trading basics and you will get yourself much further ahead.
fortunately whether I pulled the trigger or not,
whether this trade is based on forsight or hindsight,
whether I entered with 5 or 10 lots,
whether I notified others about this trade or not,
I answer to no one except myself.
Lovethetrade mentioned that Elliott Wave Theory implies a random walk, so I guess that’s one more aspect in which the system I use, which views the Forex market as being relatively predictable, differs. (I have never witnessed anything that causes me to believe that Elliott Wave Theory, as developed, actually works.)
Themickey mentions doubt, indecision, fear, and making sense of squiggly lines; which I am not sure is a fair characterization of Guppy’s Multiple Moving Averages. However, I do know that the multiple moving average system I use sets very specific criteria for entering and exiting positions, none of which involve doubt, indecision, or fear.
For example, I am currently waiting to short CADJPY and/or buy NZDUSD.
If and when I do so will have nothing to do with doubt, indecision, or fear, but rather, when the statistical probability of price having reversed direction to join what I deem to be the pairs’ dominant trends is sufficient to justify making the trades.
CADJPY presently has an exchange rate of 87.62. I already know that my take profit target will be 87.46, not based on fear, but based on an objective analysis of price action. Likewise, NZDUSD is currently at 0. 6873, and I already know that my take profit target will be 0.6890.
Themickey mentions doubt, indecision, fear, and making sense of squiggly lines; which I am not sure is a fair characterization of Guppy’s Multiple Moving Averages. However, I do know that the multiple moving average system I use sets very specific criteria for entering and exiting positions, none of which involve doubt, indecision, or fear.
For example, I am currently waiting to short CADJPY and/or buy NZDUSD.
If and when I do so will have nothing to do with doubt, indecision, or fear, but rather, when the statistical probability of price having reversed direction to join what I deem to be the pairs’ dominant trends is sufficient to justify making the trades.
CADJPY presently has an exchange rate of 87.62. I already know that my take profit target will be 87.46, not based on fear, but based on an objective analysis of price action. Likewise, NZDUSD is currently at 0. 6873, and I already know that my take profit target will be 0.6890.
Basically, Elliot wave theory is a mix of Dow and Mandelbrot.
But would you make money in practice? I doubt. Too many interpretations and zero timing.
IMO, the only interesting point is that at a start of a new bull market, the 2nd wave would retrace at least 2/3 of the 1st. Actually, it works.
Other stuff is too imprecise and without timing = non-tradable.
I highly recommend to study Stan Weinstein's stages rather than Elliot Waves.
CM
I recall Guppy in his book re MMA's saying (long time ago now) that when all the MMA's converge tightly then expect price to "explode". The theory being apparently that all this pent up demand would result in this violent breakout. Well on my Amibroker I set up the MMA's then went finding these stocks where MMA's converged and backtested the results. The so called explosions were random and not at all of any probability. Guppy is old school now but at the time he was a so called TA guru. I bought and read many of his books but Guppy was famous for writing books and in those days people were sucked in easier by 'teachers'.
So over the years I kinda kept an eye on MMA's and they are bollocks imo from being aware of this bs Guppy theory. Throwing a monkey at the dart board will give similar results, or was it you throw the dart board at the monkey?
So over the years I kinda kept an eye on MMA's and they are bollocks imo from being aware of this bs Guppy theory. Throwing a monkey at the dart board will give similar results, or was it you throw the dart board at the monkey?
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You need to read carefully before you anyhow shoot and respond garbagely.
I was responding to ironchef question, not the creator of this thread.
Having a good stew? Diddums.
Did mickey hurt your feelings, big bad mickey!
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Years ago I bought an Elliott Wave software program... was supposed to "consider all possible wave counts and then indicate its 1st and 2nd picks for current count". It would run for hours... one time I recall it tested "94 million" possibilities.
Was almost never correct (perhaps it was the software... perhaps it's Elliot in general... I dunno), but I remember one time when it got a big one right.
Still, there seems to be some correlation to the notion of "5 waves up" if you can get the count right.
FWIW....
Was almost never correct (perhaps it was the software... perhaps it's Elliot in general... I dunno), but I remember one time when it got a big one right.
Still, there seems to be some correlation to the notion of "5 waves up" if you can get the count right.
FWIW....