Does December trade characteristically 'different' than other months?

A

achilles28

After watching the market for a couple years and hearing veteran traders remark December trades 'characteristically different' than other months, I can attest from my own observations there is some truth to this.

From what i've witnessed this year and last, December price behavior usually exhibits:

big moves which are more 'erratic' than than average 'big move' witnessed in other months

Pull backs are steeper

intraday moves are faster and shorter lasting.

gains are less likely to hold before trend resumes.



Can anyone else speak to this? Does december trade qualitativily different than other months? If so, why?

Or does december trade no different than other months?

Thanks.
 
It's absolutely different. More volatility because of less people trading during the holidays causes movements to take on speed that would be otherwise muted and limited. You get a lot of extremes in December. Personally, these are great to fade because when everyone comes back for the new year, you see some pretty sizable reversals as everyone takes advantage of the wacko market the month before.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

It's absolutely different. More volatility because of less people trading during the holidays causes movements to take on speed that would be otherwise muted and limited. You get a lot of extremes in December. Personally, these are great to fade because when everyone comes back for the new year, you see some pretty sizable reversals as everyone takes advantage of the wacko market the month before.
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Thanks for the insight. This 'erraticness' is something I've noticed too.

I've debated changing my strategy to compensate, but will hold off until jan - feb to see if this new trading pattern holds.
 
December trading can go either way. I've been trading for a while. Some years it's quite exciting, like in 2000 when I was riding EUR/JPY for a huge gain (but a nerve-wracking one). Other years are fairly boring, especially around the holidays proper. It really ends up depending on some of the external factors.
 
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