Quote from 2rosy:
exactly 14.25
I would really like to know just how you came up with that number. Especially since we're talking two different spreads.
I have the ability to do a detailed daily analysis for these spreads (while we're at it, it would not be hard to add the YM vs. ES) over the next week (or more if something shows up) on a 2 min. basis. The main question is what if any profitable opportunities exist and how to identify them. How to identify which is the short and long sides. I'd look to see if there was something to it before I'd worry about the amount of capital (margin) required. Since this is an older thread has anyone come up with some ideas on what they feel is valid. I can start building the number cruncher this weekend.
This is what I have so far:
For this simple analysis I assumed a simple spread, i.e. not looking at any deviations outside the norm for each contract. I looked at only the time period where the contracts are considered the front month and I only looked at a very small sample so far on a 1 to 1.
In the YM vs. NQ. the point move "in Dollars" the value of the move of the YM was greater than the NQ 67.12% of the time.
In the ES vs. NQ. the point move "in Dollars" the value of the move of the ES was greater than the NQ 84.93% of the time.
In the YM vs. ES. the point move "in Dollars" the value of the move of the ES was greater than the YM 83.56% of the time.
This is a start, but in other spreads like the Crack Spread, the Feedlot Spread, the Crush Spread, or even the spread for July Corn vs. Dec. Corn where one is not looking to predict direction but to find aberrations in the spread of very closely related contracts. This simple analysis still requires one to be correct in the direction of the market and if you've mastered that the spread would vastly underperform.