Does anyone really think the Fed will cut 50 basis points in July?
- Thread starter noddyboy
- Start date
Historically the Fed hasn't begun easing cycles with a .50 cut.
Perhaps this time, as usual, they begin with .25 cut... and the market throws a hissy fit and tanks because "it wasn't .50"??
The market may not whine and pout if not .50 but Trump surely will.
Trump says, "the biggest problem America has is the Fed... too tight with the money". Who in his right mind believes that?
Perhaps this time, as usual, they begin with .25 cut... and the market throws a hissy fit and tanks because "it wasn't .50"??
The market may not whine and pout if not .50 but Trump surely will.
Trump says, "the biggest problem America has is the Fed... too tight with the money". Who in his right mind believes that?
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There is nothing on the table, in the economic reports or history that would indicate the FED needs to cut interest rates to push up an already inflated market, unless Trump keeps crying and whining and FED gives in.
At best the FED should do nothing until we see any real signs of economic overheating. And a stock market hitting new highs has nothing to do with the economy. The stock market is always inflated.
At best the FED should do nothing until we see any real signs of economic overheating. And a stock market hitting new highs has nothing to do with the economy. The stock market is always inflated.
BEST STOCK MARKET EVER!
First off there is absolutely no reason for a rate cut, how this came about just a few short weeks ago is just mind boggling especially with historical low unemployment and 121 months of Straight economic expansion. If you really think about it rates at around 2% are already at historical lows, yet the whining bitches on wallstreet should already know this as they persuade the fed to cut by a whopping 50 basis points at the July 31st meeting....this is NOT going to happen. My prediction is yes the fed lowers rate, but by 25 basis points, the market will NOT drop on this news due to the fact that they at least got something and not Nothing. They will then talk extremely dovish and create more euphoria for markets to rally into fresh historical highs right into August.
Why not wait until August to short then? As for myself, I think a good short is before the meeting because they won't cut 50 and the market will drop at least a little while.
"While investors appear exuberant about the prospect for Fed easing, they seem largely unaware that initial Fed easings have almost invariably been associated with U.S. recessions. They’re running toward the fire."
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs190714/
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs190714/
They won't do 50 basis points however I believe even if they do 25 basis points the markets will be excited they got a rate cut instead of nothing, plus they will rework the fed statement to be extremely dovish so that even if they do a 25 basis point the markets will like the dovish fed statement and catapult the markets higher!!
To be fair, the Fed was equally wrong to keep talking about raising rates when the market dropped 20% at the end of 2018. At the very least, Powell should've changed his tone earlier. I mean Obama had 0% rates for almost 7 years plus stimulus and multiple rounds of QE. And then he got full credit for a stock market boom! If I were his successor, I'd cry foul, too.