Quote from Occam:
Then there is the issue of having some alpha/edge -- you'll be competing with professional trading desks that have near-zero transaction costs plus the benefit of seeing customer order flow.
No. This is not the case in forex. First of all, the counter-party is either your broker (which doubles as a liquidity provider) or the liquidity provider (which specializes in providing liquidity) to your broker. And these are market-makers. You don't compete with them in the way you are describing. Even with "straight through processing", all you are doing is going straight through your retail aggregator (your broker) to it's liquidity provider, which is then the prime market-maker. It's never going to be straight through to the actual currency market where you take the other side of, say, a Bank of England's currency swap.
In retail forex, there is nobody taking the other side of your trade except the market-makers who may or may not be the *retail aggregators* (brokers) you deal with most directly. These "counter-parties" may be positioned to profit from cheating you, but normally, they are positioned to profit from a casino-like numbers game. They profit from the simple fact that a majority of speculators, upwards of 75%, will not be able to stay in the black...fair and square. So why not provide liquid, and take the other side of ALL speculators? They will be tempted to cheat only when the profitable speculators are gaining faster than those losing can lose...which would *drain* their *pool* of liquid assets.
One reason 75% of retail forex accounts won't stay in the black is because they don't really know how to speculate as a business. Speculation is a tough business, period.
Another reason might be that some retail aggregators may put their thumb on some variables (they might cheat) that rob (skim) pips from the retail speculator. This may or may not be obvious. But it's not legitimate as in the normal sense of 'competition'. For this reason, it MAY be difficult when going through SOME brokers.
But as competition between brokers increases, and as regulators look closely at them, the trend is toward transparency and fairness. Word of mouth is a potent type of regulator, and as the industry has matured, there's now no reason to think the forex system will be more problematic than a system where you actually "trade" ownership in a security or other instrument with a non-market-maker.
What you are talking about are players big enough to blow stops, if they can see them. That would need to be somebody big enough to move the forex market, or a broker ballsy enough to manipulate the price feed, which is what a forex speculator keys off of. That's called manipulation, not competition. If someone has spent the money to be able to see stops fairly, then they are the better speculator who will be among the 25% who can stay in the black. The 75% who may lose aren't competing with the 25% who may win. Everyone is challenged by their own business sense, or lack thereof.
Currently, silver and gold are manipulated by a big player. If they are found out, they could be fined big because they are manipulating, not competing. The are manipulating gold and silver the way many stocks have been manipulated. If anyone could manipulate currency exchange rates, they would. Soros is currently wanted by Putin for financial terrorism...not competition.
So it comes down to how can you measure implied cheating that surreptitiously sabotages your speculative efforts?
Unless you've run a comparative, side-by-side (apples to apples), sort of test, how would you know?
The number of profitable accounts in each industry ought to be a good apples to apples comparison. What would you say that number is for futures (other highly leveraged) traders?
Imo, it's not so much who is against you. That's always going to be the case in any market. The main thing is, despite who or what is against you, are you able to get in the black, stay in the black, and grow faster in one environment over another? Then that's the one you ought to go with. Many people have reason to believe that forex offers them that opportunity, despite the cheating, implied or real.