Does anyone know why YM (Dow) futures rose 120 points at 4PM.

V

vanv0029

March YM futures were down 0.7% or more during today's trading while the
other stock index futures were down much less. Then at 4PM YMs pikes
120 points from 24980 to 25100 in a minute or less. I assume that there
is at least some arbitrage between YM and ES. Does anyone know what
is going on?
 
Getting primed for a Monday bounce.
MG_5833.jpg
 
Well, it is Friday, large traders, brokerages and those who don't want to risk over the weekend been heavy short since Tuesday/Wednesday, time to bail and get flat-they got to buy to get flat. Ahhhh, the weekend, for some...it is golf and family snowmen, shag tail for others.
 
GOOD QUESTION.
BUT ...

The more you try to understand why the price move, the worse your trading performance will be.
And if you try to google why the price move, you will either get
- no sensible answer
- very slow answer
- stupid rediculous answer
- wrong answer
- no answer



For last Fri case, its up movement is relatively not very significant.

When movement is very significant, you might be able to google for answer,
and you might get accurate answer many many many hours or even days later.


The best solution is concentrate and focus on your CHART.
And stop focusing on WHY price is going up / down.

The more you focus on the WHY, the worse the trading performance.


Anyway, focus on whatever things you want to focus.


_____
 
Quite often, you come across weird move. There is no particular reason if you are seeking from fundamental perspective. I don't really get what you mean by arbitrage...historically, arbitrage activity involves high risk and low returns...it's actually a textbook concept. In the real world, I believe there is no arbitrage by market makers.
 
Great answers. I definitely need to do some Star Trek binge watching. If there is no arbitrage why isn't the YM 0 and NQ 10 million? I glanced at the 30 price (not market cap) weighted. DOW stocks and did not see a hint of anything unusual.
If there are no explanations, there is no science.
 
vanv0029 said:
Great answers. I definitely need to do some Star Trek binge watching. If there is no arbitrage why isn't the YM 0 and NQ 10 million? I glanced at the 30 price (not market cap) weighted. DOW stocks and did not see a hint of anything unusual.
If there are no explanations, there is no science.
More...

In fact, what you are trying to understand is speculative activity, which involves buying when price rises and selling when price falls. This activity leads to the boom and bust in prices and this may seem like arbitrage but it's a just market destabilizing activity.
 
Just don't depend on the mainstream media. I don't know what caused this particular move but the mainstream media are very happy to publish on consecutive days -
Monday - "Stocks rise as oil sinks to new low"
Tuesday - "Stocks fall as oil sinks to new low"
 
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