Does anyone else think this is a suckers rally?

[alent1234]

i think everyone is missing the point

third and fourth quarters are total losses, but in the next 6-9 months as things are cleaned up people will be building new homes, fixing homes up, buying furniture, buying new TV's and computers, businesses will be replacing a ton of infrastructure and upgrading things to be disaster recoverable.

After 9/11 all the wall street companies spent billions of $$$ on second datacenters and other redundant infrastructure.

 

[newbunch]

Quote from alent1234:

After 9/11 all the wall street companies spent billions of $$$ on second datacenters and other redundant infrastructure.

And the market didn't hit bottom until more than a year later. Good analogy.

 

[omniscient]

Quote from alent1234:

i think everyone is missing the point

third and fourth quarters are total losses, but in the next 6-9 months as things are cleaned up people will be building new homes, fixing homes up, buying furniture, buying new TV's and computers, businesses will be replacing a ton of infrastructure and upgrading things to be disaster recoverable.

After 9/11 all the wall street companies spent billions of $$$ on second datacenters and other redundant infrastructure.

doesn't that go both ways though? i mean, won't a lot of that happen with insurance money? and from that, won't it put insurance companies in a less profitable (note i didn't suggest unprofitable ) position? so it looks like that is basically a wash - one industry gets hit big time, while several industries get a bit of a bump.

also, wouldn't that be more of a factor further down the line than today?

again, just trying to wrap the gray matter around it all

thx and take care -

omni

 

[omniscient]

Quote from newbunch:

And the market didn't hit bottom until more than a year later. Good analogy.

so then, is the expectation that those in the know will be pushing up the market to liquidate at about the same time John Q decides to start getting back into the market? and that's when what's happening today leads to the real sell-off from top?

thx -

omni

 

[newbunch]

Quote from omniscient:

so then, is the expectation that those in the know will be pushing up the market to liquidate at about the same time John Q decides to start getting back into the market? and that's when what's happening today leads to the real sell-off from top?

thx -

omni

Could be. After the initial drop following 9/11, the markets started to rise. Could be the same thing here.

 

[omniscient]

btw, dunno if it is already common knowledge, but you can go to:

http://smr.com/homepage.htm

and get a daily chart on 40+ commodities and 50+ stocks. there's a daily pdf 'book' for each category (stocks and commodities) as well as links to individual listings.

nothing major, but it is pretty convenient.

hth

take care -

omni

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from omniscient:

i think this is what is puzzling to me right now. as nitro suggested, trading thoughts can be financially punishing, so my objective is to cooperatively respond to what the market indicates.

BUUUT ... the thought does occur to me: how can oil AND stocks go the same direction? yes, i realize oil did close lower today and stocks closed up. it seems the market is trying to heavily discount the effect / impact of oil. quick, lay-logic would seem to suggest:

1. oil/gas price continues going up
2. John Q Public sees it at the pump and nat gas at home
3. companies keep off-shoring, downsizing, market correcting, scrimping etc. so John gets marginal or nonexistant raises/increases or gets laid off and takes a lower paying job, but has the same or higher bills
4. John still has to feed his family, but food prices have increased beacuse it cost more to transport goods
5. John starts cinching the budget-belt. less spending, maybe sells his SUV and gets an older econo car, local vacations (if at all), fewer luxuries/extras and so forth
6. John sure isn't thinking about buying stocks (he may have been risk averse before, but now he is anti-risk)
7. even dentists and doctors and engineers look at the market less
8. stocks go higher??

i know there is more to it than this simplified perspective, but it looks like one of two things is imminent: oil OR stocks will be topping or have topped. and it seems to me oil has more upside potential than stocks. or, maybe it's that oil has less downside than stocks.

i'm really trying to understand it all, so i sincerely appreciate any insight anyone is willing to offer. like i said, in trade my goal is to focus on price, but when i take a step back and take a bigger picture of things, i'm scratching my head.

take care and gtty -

omni

the idea that the fed is done trumps all of this for now. until we get a new data point to bring fed worries back into the picture buy dips imho.

 

[NKNY]

Quote from newbunch:

And the market didn't hit bottom until more than a year later. Good analogy.

Yes but we were already in a downtrend.


NK

 

[sputdr]

6 dollar gas in Atlanta.

A major city in the US totally destroyed.

Somewhere near a million people displaced.

I just can't see how this could be anything but bad news.

This reminds me of post 9/11 when people were saying it's unpatriotic to sell stocks and then the bottom fell out.

I wonder if we get a delayed reaction like a previous poster mentioned.

 

[steeldust]

Quote from omniscient:

doesn't that go both ways though? i mean, won't a lot of that happen with insurance money? and from that, won't it put insurance companies in a less profitable (note i didn't suggest unprofitable ) position? so it looks like that is basically a wash - one industry gets hit big time, while several industries get a bit of a bump.

also, wouldn't that be more of a factor further down the line than today?

again, just trying to wrap the gray matter around it all

thx and take care -

omni

the insurance comps can then raise rates,not just for that area but all areas. they probably come out ahead in the longer term.