Thanks for your response fan27. Good point
Does a Discretionary Trader Change with Market Changes
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Thanks for your response fan27. Good point
I forward tested my methodology for months in simulation before I went live. My signals are clear and defined and meet qualifying criteria across my three time frames. The set up is basically the same but can occur on any of the time frames although the great majority of times the entry is on the smallest. I will vary targets and maximum allowable stops along with time frames based on market volatility. As I use tick charts, the tf's are endlessly adjustable.
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Past behavior is valuable for futur behavior.
Except for those who cannot find behavior in past, or have no clue how to use past info for futur use.
Past behavior is the basis of my system, and I use that system already over 20 years.
When you trade, the only information you have is from past, nobody has information from futur to trade off as futur is unknown.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes, because backtesting has always been very useful to me, even though past performance is undeniably not indicative of future results: if nothing else, it enables you to exclude from further consideration and study ideas which clearly offer no edge.
Correct, but it can increase substantially the probability of a good outcome. So it is indicative for the probability in futur. Patterns repeat themselves. I found dozens of patterns, and using them, depending on the trend, there is almost always one that works.
Most people watch only a few patterns to conclude that many times it does not work. Obvious if you have maybe 20% of the patterns needed to cover all the market conditions.
I don't change with market conditions; I have patterns for all kinds of market conditions. I use what I think is the appropriate pattern.
Which means that past information does help for futur use.
1. Yes...manually.
2. Trade based on what I see...experience is huge for confidence and therefore helps
discipline! That's why I like high probable setups even though they may be
infrequent, they make confidence and discipline easier.
3. Yes...multiple methods from experience
4. I back test or forward test or grab my testes...whatever it takes.
When market conditions change I try to adapt my best current setup to the market. If that doesn't cut
mustard, I go to previous successful setups that worked in similar market conditions in the past. I never throw a previous successful setup away...even if it blew up eventually!!!!!!!!
Yes
Yes
Yes
No, I review each trade at the end of the day looking for errors and improvements.
I have the following questions for discretionary traders:
1. Do you trade a method or strategy manually? Yes)
2. Do you just trade based on what you see or feel or have experience with that has made you money and makes you happy. Only what i see. Feelings waiver and cannot be incorporated into a mechanical system. From a personal standpoint, If my method cannot be written down it cannot be considered real. Just as an experiment, starting on a Sunday, write your system down on paper and then go back to it a week later. Let me know if the method you wrote down makes sense to you and can you follow your method in a step by step manner and produce winnings?
3. Do you trade multiple methods from years of trading experience? I have used multiple methods in the past, but after revisiting my trades, I've always found myself dissatisfied with the outcome. But, now I find that keeping it simple is the fastest way to greater earnings.
4. Did you ever back test your method or did you trade daily based on market conditions or what you see on the chart? Yes by following specific markets and spending umpteen millions of hours in screen time, But by way of software, no.
The "entire objective of trading"... is to have your money and risk position "in tune" with the market... at all times... as best you can. When the market changes, you change.... as best you can manage. And that's not easy. Like they say, "they don't ring a bell".
It's well known... "All you need to do for the market to knock you on your ass... is to keep doing what you've successfully done in the past". (Sounds counter-intuitive... I understand.) IOW... the market changes... bias, how it behaves, etc. If you don't change with it, you're likely to fail. (You think a bear market is like a "bull market counter, only bigger"? No. Or, "a bear market is the opposite/mirror image of a bull market"? Wrong again.)
What's the safest, best and easiest way to "have your money in tune with the market"? (Stop me if you've heard this one before...) PRICE TA! PRICE TA! PRICE TA!
It's well known... "All you need to do for the market to knock you on your ass... is to keep doing what you've successfully done in the past". (Sounds counter-intuitive... I understand.) IOW... the market changes... bias, how it behaves, etc. If you don't change with it, you're likely to fail. (You think a bear market is like a "bull market counter, only bigger"? No. Or, "a bear market is the opposite/mirror image of a bull market"? Wrong again.)
What's the safest, best and easiest way to "have your money in tune with the market"? (Stop me if you've heard this one before...) PRICE TA! PRICE TA! PRICE TA!
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