I agree that's all very possible. But what's happening to the economy at this time doesn't map with anything that looks like "normal business cycle".
Do you want to know the real reason the market is going down?
- Thread starter zdreg
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Yes I did, and closed them out late last week for a tremendous loss. Very depressing. At least I didn't close them out at the bottom of the bottom. I simply took as much heat as I could stand. My next journal update is going to be ugly.
I hope you post an answer written in your own words and not a WSJ link.
Not the Jews, it is the Chinese this time around.
I said it with jest but also with some sadness.Some say Chinese are the Jews of the East.
In reality, the Jews and Chinese in the US both endured lots of discriminations over the years. They, like other minorities were often the scapegoats of problems facing the nation.
I hope America gives every citizen the same protection, respect and opportunity regardless of where we came from and what is our skin color.
Zero interest rates did that and QE. Stretched out the business cycle. Then Trump came in and cut taxes to extend the run to record lengths . You ever seen people spinning plates? They were desperately trying to keep everything spinning as fast as possible for as long as possible. They still are.
The markets were always going to show Trump who was boss. The only surprising thing was how long it look.
The long growth period was the surprising thing, this nasty crash is not that surprising, it was inevitable at some point. The longer the run up lasted the worse the crash was going to be.
You had Jim Rogers saying for years and years that a bad crash was going to happen in the next 12 months or so months.
Then i noticed recently, in the last year or two, that he had stopped saying that. Instead of saying 'the crash is going happen soon' like in the next 12 months. He gave up on giving a timeframe.
The markets had made him look foolish for many years.
When he gave up saying that i had a feeling the crash was in-fact going to happen soon.
At the start of this year i had feeling the top would be March 2020, just a guess really based on it being exactly 20 years after the 2000 bubble top.
And it was going to be some type of black swan event that would be the catalyst for the market takedown.
The top came in a few weeks earlier than i was orginally guessing. I had no idea what type of black swan it would actually be.
When the markets initially ignored the virus and ran up to new highs it had me fooled too. That the crash was not infact going to happen this year.
Then i noticed recently, in the last year or two, that he had stopped saying that. Instead of saying 'the crash is going happen soon' like in the next 12 months. He gave up on giving a timeframe.
The markets had made him look foolish for many years.
When he gave up saying that i had a feeling the crash was in-fact going to happen soon.
At the start of this year i had feeling the top would be March 2020, just a guess really based on it being exactly 20 years after the 2000 bubble top.
And it was going to be some type of black swan event that would be the catalyst for the market takedown.
The top came in a few weeks earlier than i was orginally guessing. I had no idea what type of black swan it would actually be.
When the markets initially ignored the virus and ran up to new highs it had me fooled too. That the crash was not infact going to happen this year.
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Very excellent call sir. Unfortunately I was not smart enough to see this coming and was fully longed when it hit.
So, did you follow your own assessment and put your money where your mouth is?
Very excellent call sir. Unfortunately I was not smart enough to see this coming and was fully longed when it hit.
So, did you follow your own assessment and put your money where your mouth is?
Im a day trader. So i never act on long term ideas. Dont have the patience.
This must be great & fun time for day traders.