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Do you want to hear something histerical about real estate.
- Thread starter lasner
- Start date
Quote from lasner:
Aren't you the one that claims real estate in Chicago is "holding firm" When it's down 8.5%
You reckon your parents house has come back from $400K to $250K.
If a house in Chicago was worth $400K - a drop of 8.5% would be only $34K,2008 value of $366K.
In the scheme of things I'd say that was holding pretty firm.
OFHEO reports Q1 prices 5/22. Year over year OFHEO reports 2.4% decline. This is the conforming housing market. And like the previous poster has stated, it appears someone still can't afford a house. lol.
I actually had one of those brain dead builders you see at the Home Depot stop buy to get a quote on replacing a broken window. It was quite amusing to hear him talk about how dead the housing market was yet the local paper showed an above average amount of sales with prices about where they were a year ago.
I actually had one of those brain dead builders you see at the Home Depot stop buy to get a quote on replacing a broken window. It was quite amusing to hear him talk about how dead the housing market was yet the local paper showed an above average amount of sales with prices about where they were a year ago.
$215K, and if he had sold 10% ago he would have saved a "fortune"? Everything's relative I guess.
As far as house prices holding I suggest waiting until the summer selling season is fully underway before making a judgment either way. Looking at a very affluent "recession" proof area of metro west Boston the homes that are selling are selling for a substantial discount to last fall (on average down 8% and some down as much as 15%). Either the desperate cases will sell and the prices will stabilize higher or this is the beginning of the cascade that will last a few years before we hit bottom. The number of empty nesters who had counted on their home equity to help them retire comfortably are increasingly having to rethink their retirement date and even their lifestyle expectations for retirement. They need to sell to save money on taxes, utility bills, maintenance, and yet they don't want to sell what they still think is a temporary dip. Maybe they are right but who will be buying their houses at 2006-7 prices when the easy money stated income loans are no longer available, jobs are not paying as much and everything costs more, and people are leaving the high price high tax areas (where property taxes are just going higher). Personally I think the smart ones will sell this summer and take what they can get , those that hold out even though they can sell now with a 300% appreciation for having held the last 10 years, will likely pay for the mistake in 2009 and 2010. Demographics will drive the selling with the 1st boomers hitting retirement age this year, the past mortgage excesses have done a very cruel thing and have raised peoples expectations of what they should expect to get out of their house. It might not be too bad though as the places that are really suffering from what I hear are certain suburbs of Phoenix where there is a for sale sign on practically every lawn and developments that are ghost towns, a great spread trade for the old timers in the northeast where prices are still reasonably high.
I have been looking at some tear downs recently and on lots where last year houses were selling in the mid 700s now they are asking mid 600s but based on all the building that was done the last 2 years the new houses that are on the market for 900-1M put the price of tear downs at high 300K-mid 400K depending on the lot. Working backwards that puts the current crop of crappy ranches that are basically tear downs priced 100-200K above what they are worth by this metric, which is also close to what rents are suggesting properties are worth and even the 600K-2M SFH rentals are just sitting there month after month despite ridiculously low rents (i.e. 850K, a cheaper house in one of the best areas for rent for $2800 has been on the market for 120 days, one of many).
As far as house prices holding I suggest waiting until the summer selling season is fully underway before making a judgment either way. Looking at a very affluent "recession" proof area of metro west Boston the homes that are selling are selling for a substantial discount to last fall (on average down 8% and some down as much as 15%). Either the desperate cases will sell and the prices will stabilize higher or this is the beginning of the cascade that will last a few years before we hit bottom. The number of empty nesters who had counted on their home equity to help them retire comfortably are increasingly having to rethink their retirement date and even their lifestyle expectations for retirement. They need to sell to save money on taxes, utility bills, maintenance, and yet they don't want to sell what they still think is a temporary dip. Maybe they are right but who will be buying their houses at 2006-7 prices when the easy money stated income loans are no longer available, jobs are not paying as much and everything costs more, and people are leaving the high price high tax areas (where property taxes are just going higher). Personally I think the smart ones will sell this summer and take what they can get , those that hold out even though they can sell now with a 300% appreciation for having held the last 10 years, will likely pay for the mistake in 2009 and 2010. Demographics will drive the selling with the 1st boomers hitting retirement age this year, the past mortgage excesses have done a very cruel thing and have raised peoples expectations of what they should expect to get out of their house. It might not be too bad though as the places that are really suffering from what I hear are certain suburbs of Phoenix where there is a for sale sign on practically every lawn and developments that are ghost towns, a great spread trade for the old timers in the northeast where prices are still reasonably high.
I have been looking at some tear downs recently and on lots where last year houses were selling in the mid 700s now they are asking mid 600s but based on all the building that was done the last 2 years the new houses that are on the market for 900-1M put the price of tear downs at high 300K-mid 400K depending on the lot. Working backwards that puts the current crop of crappy ranches that are basically tear downs priced 100-200K above what they are worth by this metric, which is also close to what rents are suggesting properties are worth and even the 600K-2M SFH rentals are just sitting there month after month despite ridiculously low rents (i.e. 850K, a cheaper house in one of the best areas for rent for $2800 has been on the market for 120 days, one of many).
So let me get this right,
Your friend could have saved 20K perhaps had he listened to you.
Since he didn't listen to your advice you've now taken to the internet to dis him and hopefully find some strangers who will vindicate you by agreeing that your friend is a fool.
Meanwhile, your parents have lost 150K.
So, it sounds like your parents are even dumber than your friend. And since you share their genes.........
Oh nevermind.
Your friend could have saved 20K perhaps had he listened to you.
Since he didn't listen to your advice you've now taken to the internet to dis him and hopefully find some strangers who will vindicate you by agreeing that your friend is a fool.
Meanwhile, your parents have lost 150K.
So, it sounds like your parents are even dumber than your friend. And since you share their genes.........
Oh nevermind.
Quote from Deadwood:
So let me get this right,
Your friend could have saved 20K perhaps had he listened to you.
Since he didn't listen to your advice you've now taken to the internet to dis him and hopefully find some strangers who will vindicate you by agreeing that your friend is a fool.
Meanwhile, your parents have lost 150K.
So, it sounds like your parents are even dumber than your friend. And since you share their genes.........
Oh nevermind.
No retard this is how it works....my parents are mutli millionaires that don't care about 150k.
My stupid friend is in debt 100k and is getting ready to lose his shirt. I told him two years ago to sell his house and he's free.
I'm tired of everyone talking shit about how real estate isn't dropping and how their house hasn't dropped in value and people talking about how their houses are actually appreciating. Time to wake up and smell the f**king coffee. Real estate within the next two years will completely collapse across the country
Quote from lasner:
No retard this is how it works....my parents are mutli millionaires that don't care about 150k.
My stupid friend is in debt 100k and is getting ready to lose his shirt. I told him two years ago to sell his house and he's free.
I'm tired of everyone talking shit about how real estate isn't dropping and how their house hasn't dropped in value and people talking about how their houses are actually appreciating. Time to wake up and smell the f**king coffee. Real estate within the next two years will completely collapse across the country
You show me a multi-millionare and I'll show you someone who certainly cares a great deal about $150k. Give me a freaking break.
Earlier you talked about a "fortune" that would have figured around $20k, but now you don't care about $150k???
Quote from clacy:
You show me a multi-millionare and I'll show you someone who certainly cares a great deal about $150k. Give me a freaking break.
Earlier you talked about a "fortune" that would have figured around $20k, but now you don't care about $150k???
I'm not the one that's the millionaire...my parents are.
My parents are retired....they don't want to sell their house or move. The are content with were they are.
The fortune of 20k is going to depreciate a lot more with time he could wind up losing 70k on each house....that's a lot of money