romik, it may be hilarious, but it is exactly true
and succinct
that's pretty much it
commodities are totally different from stocks, in that there are market participants (producers and consumers) etc. that have to be there.
and corn is a real thing. unlike a stock like, for example, CAFE (lol), corn is not going to get delisted, it is not going to have a backdated options scandal, etc. yes, it is remotely possible that all of a sudden the world will stop using corn, but get real
when a commodity gets cheaper, people find alternate uses for it. like when some commodities get cheap enough, farmers will supply that commodity to their livestock as feed, which will increase demand, which will drive up the price, etc.
iow, low prices are a cure for low prices.
and farmers will replant a different crop if a crop isn't bringing good prices, which will decrease supply, and then price goes up.
etc.
and back to the consumer/producer thang... a stock does not have thousands and commercials etc. that NEED to position in that particular stock. but if you are a farmer with thousands of bushels of corn to go to market in 6 months, you HEDGE. and if you are a consumer that needs thousands of bushels of corn, you HEDGE
again, commodities are "different"
do a search on scale trading, it's hardly a novel technique
and note that scale trading ALWAYS involves longs, NOT shorts
for exactly the reason mentioned above. nobody knows how expensive a commodity can get, but we know as long as it has intrinsic value, it will not go to zero
scale trading just requires discipline, and enough capitalization to ride the waves and deal with the rollovers etc. if necessary
given sufficient capitalization, it is a very conservative and professional strategy, much akin to spread trading in that respect
