Do You Think Trading is Gambling?

[ssss]

Let's just use this: 5 tick target/5tick stop with 60% win rate. (PF of 1.5)
###########################

It is not realistic expectance by retail by risk/reward
1:1 to have .6 winning rate long term=1000 operations

if true have 0.6 winning rate ,possibility to divide
capital ,than by this rate from Kelly form must go with
risk 20%

Most of statements in propaganda book calculated 0.6 ,but not stated how great is row of operations

if only 100 ,that through ditribution can be
.0.3- 0.7 ,but from 1000 with high chance
would 0.48-0.52
If infinite ,than value would go to 0.5
- spread - commission -tax

With very high chance it is not advantage by retail
to win by risk/reward 1/1 60% from row
of 10-20-30-50-100 operations
but only result related to statistic distribution

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from ssss:

Let's just use this: 5 tick target/5tick stop with 60% win rate. (PF of 1.5)
###########################

It is not realistic expectance by retail by risk/reward
1:1 to have .6 winning rate long term=1000 operations

if true have 0.6 winning rate ,possibility to divide
capital ,than by this rate from Kelly form must go with
risk 20%

Most of statements in propaganda book calculated 0.6 ,but not stated how great is row of operations

if only 100 ,that through ditribution can be
.0.3- 0.7 ,but from 1000 with high chance
would 0.48-0.52
If infinite ,than value would go to 0.5
- spread - commission -tax

With very high chance it is not advantage by retail
to win by risk/reward 1/1 60% from row
of 10-20-30-50-100 operations
but only result related to statistic distribution

Agree 100%.

P.S DO you think trading is gambling then? DO you recommend that one goes with the negative expatany and quit if ahead before the long run gets him?

 

[ssss]

P.S. if 100 000 persons would go to roullete

and bet 1000 $ 10 time in row with profit reinvestment
on black or red or combination ,where each bet have
risk/reward 1:1 ,that approx 70 persons
would going with win 1 mln $

( Casino Montecarlo with event game 51.60 to 48.40)


All another's with 100% loss of start capital 1000$

 

[Bootsie]

Quote from ElCubano:

you are 100% correct ...anyone with inside info and front running are not gamblers, they are the "Unfair" coin in the market.

right, and all you have to do is find them...

 

[ssss]

right, and all you have to do is find them...
###################################

Read SEC,CFTC,NFA reports,investigations

regulary ...

But it is not all

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from ssss:

Let's just use this: 5 tick target/5tick stop with 60% win rate. (PF of 1.5)
###########################

It is not realistic expectance by retail by risk/reward
1:1 to have .6 winning rate long term=1000 operations

if true have 0.6 winning rate ,possibility to divide
capital ,than by this rate from Kelly form must go with
risk 20%

Most of statements in propaganda book calculated 0.6 ,but not stated how great is row of operations

if only 100 ,that through ditribution can be
.0.3- 0.7 ,but from 1000 with high chance
would 0.48-0.52
If infinite ,than value would go to 0.5
- spread - commission -tax

With very high chance it is not advantage by retail
to win by risk/reward 1/1 60% from row
of 10-20-30-50-100 operations
but only result related to statistic distribution

How about this then:

You have $10,000 you can afford to loose.

You put all in a trade with 1 tick profit and a stop of a margin call or 0?

You do this once. I feel this is less of a gamble then most of the systems discussed here.

What if you do this 10, 50 and 100 times? We know that in a very long run you will loose but who cares about the long run. It is the propaganda that promises you the long run.

 

[ssss]

P.S DO you think trading is gambling then?


Yes ,for retail as author strong scientific point of view


DO you recommend that one goes with the negative expatany and quit if ahead before the long run gets him?

Author can recommend only that , what make
that would fair ...

1. Author played in paper money contest's
with paper money ,untill 20 000 participants
and real money price's from 150 $ untill 100 000 $
(can not play in USA big contest's ,non Resident )
which through Germany law not taxed

In this case ,as each attempt loss limited to 0
author can not have any loss


2. If author won (was case#s) ,some money
used from Epukur point of view ( good Cognac ,evening with friends ,if more win -with beaty girl)

some used to test real money market

- try to catch some short lived sequence
with risk 100% and limited quantities of operations

Loss -not problem .Loosed money ,which won by prize money contest .

No debt ,no loss of money only very great amount
of loosed time (untill 10-12 hours each day)

 

[ssss]

How about this then:

You have $10,000 you can afford to loose.

You put all in a trade with 1 tick profit and a stop of a margin call or 0?

You do this once. I feel this is less of a gamble then most of the systems discussed here.
################################

Author can recommend only that ,what make ...
one message above is answer ...

Your respectfully

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from ssss:

P.S DO you think trading is gambling then?


Yes ,for retail as author strong scientific point of view


DO you recommend that one goes with the negative expatany and quit if ahead before the long run gets him?

Author can recommend only that , what make
that would fair ...

1. Author played in paper money contest's
with paper money ,untill 20 000 participants
and real money price's from 150 $ untill 100 000 $
(can not play in USA big contest's ,non Resident )
which through Germany law not taxed

In this case ,as each attempt loss limited to 0
author can not have any loss


2. If author won (was case#s) ,some money
used from Epukur point of view ( good Cognac ,evening with friends ,if more win -with beaty girl)

some used to test real money market

- try to catch some short lived sequence
with risk 100% and limited quantities of operations

Loss -not problem .Loosed money ,which won by prize money contest .

No debt ,no loss of money only very great amount
of loosed time (untill 10-12 hours each day)

You tha man.

You make sense dude.

 

[gnome]

Quote from ivanbaj:

"... DO you think trading is gambling then? DO you recommend that one goes with the negative expatany and quit if ahead before the long run gets him?

If you are truly gambling, that is probably the wisest course of action.

But some traders make money most days.. nearly all weeks and months... and year after year.

There is no "gambling" activity where one could do that.

Trading is a game if SKILL!