Do you think the markets will fall next week?

My take, currently bearish atmosphere, but only mildly so.
This month probably a bit of too'ing and fro'ing back and forth.
SPX daily bars have gone above MA200 recently, it may drop below again just to confuse everyone, but ultimately we are setting up for a rally later in the month.
 
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tomorton said:
I always start my TA of every chart with a snapshot of basic set parameters. Results for the Dow are -

20EMA slope = upwards = Bullish
50EMA slope = upwards = Bullish
20/50EMA sequence = 20 is below 50 = Bearish
Bullish / Bearish close sequence of weekly bars = 2 up = Bullish (but not much)
Sequence of weekly bars not breached by 50EMA = 0 = Neutral
Sequence of weekly closes above/below 50EMA = 1 above = Bullish (but not much)
Is weekly close in top or bottom third of range? = top = Bullish

For me to take a long-term trend-following trade, the first 3 parameters must be in agreement. Usually, when a chart is reversing from Bearish to Bullish, the 20EMA slope is the first of the 3 to reverse, then the 50 slope, then the 20/50 sequence. FWIW, the Nasdaq and S&P are weaker.

Conclusions -
So far the snapshot looks like a story of a chart trying to turn bullish but its actually not making much progress.

There isn't a trend-following trade for me in either direction. If I was forced to trade this index, I would either a) set a sell order below Friday's low, or b) a buy above Thursday's high and a sell below Friday's low but I hate doing that as I don't have much conviction for either if triggered. I would rather short the Nasdaq (but not yet).
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1. I don't know about next week... "correction in an ongoing bull market", or "bear market has begun" ??

2. IF the bear market has begun, there will be a few furious rallies which convince some (1) the dip is not part of a bear market, or (2) the bear market is over when in fact it is not. Last week's rally could have been such a thing.

3. The rally peaked(?) at the 62% Fib, at least so far. That's a thingy the market is likely to do if it's bearish. Suggest keeping that in mind whatever your play.
 
d08 said:
Seasonality is starting to come into play as we head toward thanksgiving. Last week can go either way but it's likely to remain volatile. But after that, it's going to get quiet fast.
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Can you expand? I've noticed the last three years bullishness into August with selling/stagnation all the way into December.

From a purchasing point of view, I would've expected good numbers until November
 
There are something that is surely going to happen and will happen.
there will be lots and lots of signals for you to long and short.
there will be lots and lots of continuation and reversal signals.

just trade based on what you see from the chart accordingly.
and zero out predicting the future.

So make hay while the sunshine,
Spend more time trading,
and make tons of money since there will be tons of opportunities.
 
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Seasonally, the period after thanksgiving has a very good risk/reward for bulls. Based on my backtesting that is. That alone isn't enough to earn great returns but it's what I recommend for people who have some money to put down but no idea about trading.
 
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