Do you think it's a bad idea to buy a house at this time?

[Arnie]

I don't have your expertise but I share your skepticism especially on their "forecasts" of what prices will do over the next year. I'm guessing they just extrapolate out what prices did over the previous year, which is next to useless in and of itself, even before you take into account which properties they're using to extrapolate and if they match your property type at all. "Single family home" can cover a pretty broad spectrum of housing types even in a small area.

They are super helpful for finding your own comparable sales however, especially when you're looking for something specific like waterfront or view properties. I've found the graphic interface on Zillow allows me to do a better job than many (but certainly not all) in your profession finding comps that are actually comps not just something within a certain distance and number of square feet. Having a monopoly on that data in an easily accessible form for so many years unfortunately made many appraisers just plain lazy. I am curious if you have any tips for how to find a good appraiser versus one who just plugs and chugs with their online comp tool?

They are actually getting better in some areas. It's the areas with unique/high end custom/rural, or areas with little sales data, where they are not that reliable.

I will use them on re-fi order's. I look up the Zillow estimate and then look at the comps. If the comps don't support the Zillow #, I will usually turn the order down. Once an owner sees the Zillow figure, and they all look at it, they think that's the value. I had one young couple that were looking at the Zilllow # every week. Well, Zillow had their GLA 30% higher than what it was. Nothing I could say would convince that it was a case of GIGO.

 

[Sig]

They are actually getting better in some areas. It's the areas with unique/high end custom/rural, or areas with little sales data, where they are not that reliable.

I will use them on re-fi order's. I look up the Zillow estimate and then look at the comps. If the comps don't support the Zillow #, I will usually turn the order down. Once an owner sees the Zillow figure, and they all look at it, they think that's the value. I had one young couple that were looking at the Zilllow # every week. Well, Zillow had their GLA 30% higher than what it was. Nothing I could say would convince that it was a case of GIGO.

One other thing I noticed... I sold a house last year and found it remarkable how the "zestimate" adjusted to within 1% of my listing price within minutes of them picking up the listing, a change of just under 10% from what had pretty steadily been there for several months. It seems that their estimate on listed properties is completely manipulated/unreliable.

 

[Sprout]

I sold a house to a guy who later sold the house for something like 30% less than he paid for it. I sold the house to him before the 2008 crash, and he sold the house a couple years ago.

My point being - RE is no longer subject to generalizations about value.

Thank you for clarifying. I understand and that event was an outlier.

My point is that when the intent is investing vs having a residence, one is approached as being an asset, the other a liability.

To make money when you buy, the price and terms can be framed as a negotiable instrument. That contract can be resold on the private market intraday if it’s a good deal. It’s all about how the deal is structured.

All my property that I’ve bought and sold has been through private contracts and not through the conventional method of banks and formal closings.

It’s possible by interacting with a motivated seller.

 

[bone]

While 30% may be an outlier, it is no outlier that on a national level US home prices have not recovered their pre-crash valuations**. There are some very notable exceptions primarily in big cities and urban areas on the US West Coast. **(S&P Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index)

And of course, if someone is a cash buyer and they can find a very motivated (distressed) seller then there are always deals to be had in any sort of market.

Thank you for clarifying. I understand and that event was an outlier.

My point is that when the intent is investing vs having a residence, one is approached as being an asset, the other a liability.

To make money when you buy, the price and terms can be framed as a negotiable instrument. That contract can be resold on the private market intraday if it’s a good deal. It’s all about how the deal is structured.

All my property that I’ve bought and sold has been through private contracts and not through the conventional method of banks and formal closings.

It’s possible by interacting with a motivated seller.

 

[Sig]

While 30% may be an outlier, it is no outlier that on a national level US home prices have not recovered their pre-crash valuations**. There are some very notable exceptions primarily in big cities and urban areas on the US West Coast. **(S&P Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index)

And of course, if someone is a cash buyer and they can find a very motivated (distressed) seller then there are always deals to be had in any sort of market.

I'm sure there are some places they haven't recovered but nationwide Case-Shiller is about 20% above the previous 2006/2007 high.

 

[Turveyd]

I'd ask a mate but he bought a 20 houses in 2007, he was running seminars to tell idiots like himself to buy so the rich could sell, went bankrupt in 2009 and lives in a carivan.

You could done the opposite of his advice.

 

[murray t turtle]

You do realize Obama didn't take office until 2009? And that the economy took a nosedive in 2008 under Bush, but GDP grew every year under Obama and was in far better shape when he left office than when he took over? ……….

%%
He tried to jack up the price of oil with many gov regs\but Arabia overruled him+ one of the biggest/strangly smooth downtrends in history. Amazing.
DOW theory is right/markets are much bigger than any one person.IF a capital hater/high taxer cant really ruin a market/ good for capitalism.
OF course too high taxes/gov regs can ruin market long term;
but I like the way many voted with their feet + moved from CA/NY

 

[Trader Curt]

Focus man! This is specifically a thread about the residential real estate market, not healthcare or any other asset class. A market that went up significantly in Obama's first term as well as his second and pretty much universally across the country. You, again, seem pathologically unable to accept that simple fact and asserted the opposite (you thought residential real estate would go down under Biden because, of course, Obama). Which is certainly your choice to make, but given this is a forum where we talk about trading, it's certainly open game to point out that you're being completely irrational in deciding not to make a trade in an instrument (residential real estate) because you are afraid you'll lose money because Obama, when under Obama that instrument pretty unambiguously went up in value. You're not in your safe space bubble here, or when you trade. People and markets care about facts not your political beliefs.

And again, the ability of any President to impact an asset class like real estate is so minimal that allowing an election to determine for you if you're going to own a home or not is not only foolish but in many ways very sad.

Yes but did you hear the part in my other posts about a recession every 10-12 years? Do you ever think that maybe my reasoning doesn't just have to do with politics and more like a market cycle that could get triggered by politics? This isn't just about a political issue, even though I believe a politition could help trigger the market cycle that's already in place. Just look at any recession chart, we get one every 10-12 years. Now, could I be wrong? Yes of course. Can you be wrong? Definitely. I just believe there is a better chance of you being wrong than me, and I damn sure am not going to let some joe blow from the internet tell me how to manage my finances, when I believe the opposite. I am going to hold off from buying a house until the time is right. I am happy living a meager life for now, a single man with no kids. So if you would kindly shut your mouth now, and let the future unfold, we can see what will happen.....

Have a great day, Mr Sig.....

 

[SunTrader]

.... Tell me something I don't already know ...

reality would be a good starting point.

 

[Sig]

Yes but did you hear the part in my other posts about a recession every 10-12 years? Do you ever think that maybe my reasoning doesn't just have to do with politics and more like a market cycle that could get triggered by politics? This isn't just about a political issue, even though I believe a politition could help trigger the market cycle that's already in place. Just look at any recession chart, we get one every 10-12 years. Now, could I be wrong? Yes of course. Can you be wrong? Definitely. I just believe there is a better chance of you being wrong than me, and I damn sure am not going to let some joe blow from the internet tell me how to manage my finances, when I believe the opposite. I am going to hold off from buying a house until the time is right. I am happy living a meager life for now, a single man with no kids. So if you would kindly shut your mouth now, and let the future unfold, we can see what will happen.....

Have a great day, Mr Sig.....

So first off, we officially entered a recession in Feb 2020, I know that probably comes as as much of a shock to you as everything else you've learned in this thread. Second, why in the world did you feel the need to bring up all this Obama hate when it was absolutely irrelevant, or more accurately completely wrong with respect to what happened to residential real estate prices during the Obama administration? Are you completely blind to the fact that you're so wrapped up in your political beliefs you're letting them run your life for you?

I'm not sure how I could would be "wrong", given that I simply pointed out the indisputable but apparently for you very inconvenient fact that residential real estate prices went up during both terms of the Obama administration and that Presidents don't actually have much ability to impact residential real estate prices? I would add to that another indisputable fact you're apparently unaware of that residential real estate doesn't fall in 10 year economic cycles, it's its own asset class that's very different from the stock market. I understand if you're a kid who's only experience in this was 2008 you might think this was the case, but it's trivial to look up the data a see that this at least historically hasn't been the case.

Will residential real estate rise or fall over the next 5, 10, or 15 years? I think anyone who claims to know that is, to put it nicely, unaware of their own limitations in predicting things. Certainly if you're basing your predictions off beliefs that simply aren't true, as we've clearly demonstrated you are, then the probability you get it right is no different than pure chance. If you want to pay your rent to a landlord for the next 4 years and get nothing out of it, that's clearly your choice. In fact since I rent out property I count on suckers like you to help build my wealth, so by all means, avoid buying a house as long as any Democrats control any part of the federal government! And thank you for helping those of us who live lives based on facts rather than personal political beliefs get richer at the expense of folks like you.