Do you see patterns in Random Walks?

[carlberky]

Why are so many people who scoff at TA posting in a TA forum?

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from deltatrade:

so what is known to be ta does not work in as they are presented. useless. out of 500 trading ideas only 3-4 work. discretionary trading is gut trading and it is not science.
but the ideas that work in a systematic way on normal charts work the same on random charts .
my theory is that the markets are random and behave exactly like the random ones provided that they are chandlesticks.
if i were to demonstrate this what would be the testing parameters?

My view is that the markets closely relate to their participants.

Thus, I could build a system of the market's operation.

So I did several of these.

Now, looking back I conclude several things.

Prediction is not a necessity for taking the full offer of the markets.

There is no need to apply statistics to the markets to take the full offer of the market.

Market participation rules and the rights of participants are all that are needed to create markets. Market behavior comes from this.

Iterative refinement of methods is complete when noise, flaws and anomalies are not longer a part of the data stream processing.

The thread is about patterns in random walks. If a random walk in a market rules of operation setting is done; then there will be patterns. The reason and basis of my certain conclusion is the simple fact that the variables of markets are granular.

I have been around. In fact, I am recognized in academics, research, applied science and engineering.

My most exciting advanced learning experience was in theoretical physics. I was fortunate enough to have P. Gabrial Bergman in front of the white board for several top of the line classes. He used Russian texts mostly.(the famous L's)

 

[ammo]

Quote from atlTrader666:

I'm interested in the more esoteric technical analysis and why people believe it (against all evidence)... Aside support and resistance and some momentum patterns, the rest of TA seems like nonsense. Academics have tested TA strategies for half a century and they all call it bullsh1t. There is vague proof of short-term momentum. Only Benoit Mandelbrot discovered something valid: volatility tends to cluster. You can't make money of that though since traders have intuitively known and incorporate higher premiums in their options trading when volatility increases.

My question: If you were to create a random walk in Excel do you think you would differentiate the chart from say a stock market chart?

Seriously guys Google image a random walk chart or create one in Excel and you will be amazed at the amount of double tops/bottoms, bull/bear flags, breakouts from consolidation areas, etc. that you will discover. Even Fibonacci lines will look like viable entry & exit points.

market buyers move the market up until it is too pricey, market sellers move the market down until they think its too cheap , these turns create temporary value areas ,this happens repeatedly, this makes it repetitive ,this action could be sliced and diced several ways , while your back is turned doing the research to disprove it, it will repeat this behavior. A rose is rose by any other name

 

[SunTrader]

Quote from jack hershey:

.........

I have been around. In fact, I am recognized in academics, research, applied science and engineering.

....

That's all nice but this isn't academia, research, applied science or engineering.

That's 2 doors down.

This is where the rubber meets the road.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from SunTrader:

That's all nice but this isn't academia, research, applied science or engineering.

That's 2 doors down.

This is where the rubber meets the road.

LOL

As a concequence, I am a trader (56 years).

On ES open tomorrow, I will enter short.

See carryover for substantive context.

 

[marketsurfer]

There are patterns in random data that's created within market parameters. It's the exact same patterns as real markets. This one of the reasons TA is logically flawed.

surf

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from jack hershey:

LOL

As a concequence, I am a trader (56 years).

On ES open tomorrow, I will enter short.

See carryover for substantive context.

attached is the page 5 of the log which has carryove notes.

I stay in the market all the time for RTH's so the open is always a trade.

Edit: Ooops, the sandwich I created has bologna in between.

 

[vicirek]

Quote from jack hershey:

attached is the page 5 of the log which has carryove notes.

So what did your doctor had to say about this

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from vicirek:

So what did your doctor had to say about this

Could you be more specific?

 

[vicirek]

Quote from jack hershey:

Could you be more specific?

Is he following your advice?

Do you have something simpler to show. Your charts look too complicated.