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Do you see patterns in Random Walks?
- Thread starter atlTrader666
- Start date
Quote from ProfLogic:
Have the mods delete the posts after surf's troll comment.
Enough said on that.
Niederhoffer's tests were extensive and perfect but they didn't test everything and that is the problem. You can't make blanket statements about anything that is open ended. New stuff is discovered and established daily.
LOL! Pray tell Nobel nominee -- what did Dr.Niederhoffer miss in his testing? Could it be "price physics" and your near perfect track record on your website or is it something else?
He would like to know.
Thank you,
Surf
Quote from ProfLogic:
Niederhoffer's tests were extensive and perfect but they didn't test everything and that is the problem. You can't make blanket statements about anything that is open ended. New stuff is discovered and established daily.
Sure it's impossible for one man to test "every" TA strategy. But academics as a group have been studying the subject for half a century... why are there only such a few anomalies?
Eugene Fama's "Random Walk" is probably sensationalism of the financial markets system. Benoit Mandlebrot wrote how the market does not always act randomly... more importantly it wasn't as neat as coin-flip finance... price moves could be quick, sharp and sudden, defying bell-curve risk management tools (standard deviations, etc.). But Mandlebrot, a genius, said that the market still behaved too random to be able to consistently extract profits from it.
Ed Thorp was another academic. He was also a gambler and probably only second to James Simons as the best trader to come out of academia. He studied TA extensively but settled to trade mainly off arb opportunities... he actually invented convertible arbitrage.
Out of all big name HF managers I believe only Paul Tudor Jones is the guy that trades (or use to trade) off technicals. I know he was a big Elliot Wave guy two decades ago. Has anyone seen that video of him essentially predicting the 1987 crash?
I would argue that TA (such as patterns, oscillators, indicators) has been studied rigorously and long enough for it to be disproved. If you have 1,000,000 traders of course x of them will make a killing off certain TA strategies. Does it mean they were skilled or lucky? People will always discover an edge in the markets for a short period of time... these strategies won't be exposed until they stop working. Why are successful traders (HF managers, not authors) so secretive? There must be a reason for that right?
Quote from marketsurfer:
LOL! Pray tell Nobel nominee -- what did Dr.Niederhoffer miss in his testing? Could it be "price physics" and your near perfect track record on your website or is it something else?
He would like to know. Thank you, Surf
If you have to ask what new technologies have been developed since he blew up in 1997 or bailed in 2007, you aren't very plugged into the marketplace . . . which your obviously aren't.
Quote from atlTrader666:
Sure it's impossible for one man to test "every" TA strategy. But academics as a group have been studying the subject for half a century... why are there only such a few anomalies?
Eugene Fama's "Random Walk" is probably sensationalism of the financial markets system. Benoit Mandlebrot wrote how the market does not always act randomly... more importantly it wasn't as neat as coin-flip finance... price moves could be quick, sharp and sudden, defying bell-curve risk management tools (standard deviations, etc.). But Mandlebrot, a genius, said that the market still behaved too random to be able to consistently extract profits from it.
Ed Thorp was another academic. He was also a gambler and probably only second to James Simons as the best trader to come out of academia. He studied TA extensively but settled to trade mainly of arb opportunities... he actually invented convertible arbitrage.
Out of all big name HF managers I believe only Paul Tudor Jones is the guy that trades (or use to trade) off technicals. I know he was a big Elliot Wave guy in two decades ago. Has anyone seen that video of him essentially predicting the 1987 crash?
I would argue that TA (such as patterns, oscillators, indicators) has been studied rigorously and long enough for it to be disproved. If you have 1,000,000 traders of course x of them will make a killing off certain TA strategies. Does it mean they were skilled or lucky? People will always discover an edge in the markets for a short period of time... these strategies won't be exposed until they stop working.
It only takes one consistent anomaly to be found for one to take advantage of . . . just one!
Mandelbrot, had he lived long enough, would have seen randomness tamed. He was close in his fractals. Thorp is great as well but he has given up.
Strategies stop working because chart structure changes. Create a chart structure that is constant and the likelihood of the strategy ceasing to work is greatly diminished.
Quote from ProfLogic:
If you have to ask what new technologies have been developed since he blew up in 1997 or bailed in 2007, you aren't very plugged into the marketplace . . . which your obviously aren't.
Why be obtuse? There aren't any potential seminar or book buying dreamers reading this thread. Just answer the question-- what did Dr. Niederhoffer miss in his testing?
Surf
By the way,atl666-- Peter Borish was PTJ technical guy-- ever wonder why TJ pulled the tape from circulation? It's ridicoulous hearing folks quote a movie from 1987 as the final word on how a Hedgee trades today. .
Quote from ProfLogic:
It only takes one consistent anomaly to be found for one to take advantage of . . . just one!
Mandelbrot, had he lived long enough, would have seen randomness tamed. He was close in his fractals. Thorp is great as well but he has given up.
Strategies stop working because chart structure changes. Create a chart structure that is constant and the likelihood of the strategy ceasing to work is greatly diminished.
Complete and total nonsense. Your chart structure has no advantage over any other despite your blustery marketing hyperbole.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Why be obtuse? There aren't any potential seminar or book buying dreamers reading this thread. Just answer the question-- what did Dr. Niederhoffer miss in his testing?
By the way,atl666-- Peter Borish was PTJ technical guy-- ever wonder why TJ pulled the tape from circulation? It's ridicoulous hearing folks quote a movie from 1987 as the final word on how a Hedgee trades today. .
You will see soon enough what he missed. I'm not being obtuse, I don't want to ruin your surprise.
Since you like to name drop. Next time you see "Paul" ask him about Rick Heye.
Why do you need to see you name twice in each post?
Quote from marketsurfer:
Complete and total nonsense. Your chart structure has no advantage over any other despite your blustery marketing hyperbole.
I didn't say mine but if it did you aren't smart enough to be any kind of authority to attest to it being valid or not.
Why don't you go back to your journal thread and sweep up the mess you left there?
Quote from marketsurfer:
By the way,atl666-- Peter Borish was PTJ technical guy-- ever wonder why TJ pulled the tape from circulation? It's ridicoulous hearing folks quote a movie from 1987 as the final word on how a Hedgee trades today. .
Say what you want but the guy was literally using Elliot Wave and modeling the price action from the 1929 crash... sure they could've used other methods but that's the best inference we have.