Sorry but I don't get that, can you explain what you mean by "what the herd is not doing..."... Isn't the herd forming the pattern in the first place...?
Do you see patterns in Random Walks?
- Thread starter atlTrader666
- Start date
Sorry but I don't get that, can you explain what you mean by "what the herd is not doing..."... Isn't the herd forming the pattern in the first place...?
markets go up cos the herd isn't long. that changes and markets top because the herd didn't sell.
markets go down cos the herd didn't sell. that changes and markets bottom because the herd didn't hold.
what they're not doing is found in many overlooked patterns.
esoteric t/a wastes it's time analyzing what they are doing and jumping in with them.
+1
Thats what i am talking abaout, nothing beats statistics.
Doesnt matter what you think about the markets, statistics always tell the truth.
I dont know why it is, how it is and i dont care.
Important is only that i know how to use statistics to analyse repeating patterns with a 100% win rate !!!
remember: win rate means to win. How much can be different.
But also at 90% of them patterns, they will hit the minimum target and about 40-50% they will go further, about 30% they make the double move as from entry to minimum target.
I tell you what, if you say no patterns work for 100%, then you are wrong, and just not good enough !!
I would never bet anything on what i think is not 100% perfect.
So everything is perfect and on my side, and the only thing what can hurt me is my selfdiscipline, if i do not follow my rule, with perfect entry or exit or overtrading.
Price moves, only because, more money is flown into buying or selling.
From where this more money comes can be always different.
Can be the masses of people, like at a panic crisis reaction, like Tsunami in Japan.
And the most of the time, its from the Big Guys aka Banks + Hedge Fund traders.
The Big Money rules the price and this guys dont do anything without a reason, they know the rules of the markets, they know the patterns, and they only trade these, thats why the markets have patterns, and why the big traders win and the small traders lose.
Knowledge is everything.
From where this more money comes can be always different.
Can be the masses of people, like at a panic crisis reaction, like Tsunami in Japan.
And the most of the time, its from the Big Guys aka Banks + Hedge Fund traders.
The Big Money rules the price and this guys dont do anything without a reason, they know the rules of the markets, they know the patterns, and they only trade these, thats why the markets have patterns, and why the big traders win and the small traders lose.
Knowledge is everything.
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
Price moves, only because, more money is flown into buying or selling.
From where this more money comes can be always different.
Can be the masses of people, like at a panic crisis reaction, like Tsunami in Japan.
And the most of the time, its from the Big Guys aka Banks + Hedge Fund traders.
The Big Money rules the price and this guys dont do anything without a reason, they know the rules of the markets, they know the patterns, and they only trade these, thats why the markets have patterns, and why the big traders win and the small traders lose.
Knowledge is everything.
This knowledge is secret and it must and will stay this way.
If everybody would know this secrets, markets would must change - i believe, but this will never happen, because we all know, money is our god and a basic life essence.....
Because its about money making.
Thats why the proffessors of the world universities teach that the markets are random. But they are not traders. And this is ok, its their job. They just believe what is good for their job, but its far away from reality.
Traders who made their money, know that the markets are not random.
Thats the difference.
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It seems to me here, a lot of people do not even know the basics of price movement in the financial markets, its like in every market on the globe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
There are a lot of patterns and they all have different success probabilities.
So, the true Master Trader, only choose the ones with the highest odds, nothing else.
So, with statistics about this highest possible odds patterns, we can create setups what are "self fullfilling prophecys".
Thats what we technical trader do.
Self fullfilling prophecies.
So, the true Master Trader, only choose the ones with the highest odds, nothing else.
So, with statistics about this highest possible odds patterns, we can create setups what are "self fullfilling prophecys".
Thats what we technical trader do.
Self fullfilling prophecies.
Yeah... I used to be a prop trader afterall... I know technical or better yet... chart based trading works... But I don't know if anyone can actually do some accurate pattern recognition that has some predictive value. I see the market as a game of "hot potato"... You've got too jump in when it's moving and you've got to get rid of it before it stops. You also have to jump out instantly if it goes against you. That's how I made my money in proprietary trading.
Patterns for the most part teach the exact opposite... I started out as a big TA guy but it didn't work for me and I was quickly advised to ditch the method. Patterns teach that you can predict what happens next... As such, the pattern trader will step in front of a moving market expecting his pattern to play out... In real time it rarely works out and you'll find that the mind often plays tricks on you. It's easy to recognize a pattern in a tapestry or in a chart after it happened. BUT it is really hard to do when the market is actually moving. You may think that you have a "double bottom"... And sure enough a "W" forms on the timeframe of your chart... You go long and watch as the bottom falls out of the market⦠You look on a higher timeframe and you notice that it isnât really a âWâ forming but rather a âbear flagâ continuation pattern⦠You go âOh man, how could I have been so stupidâ¦!?â
This happens all the time in real trading⦠So which pattern actually has more valueâ¦? The one on the 1 minute chart (âWâ) or the one on the 15 minute chart (bear flag)â¦? The real answer is NEITHER⦠At the moment when you notice them both are equally valid! That's Fractal Geometry messing with your head...!
Think about it for a second...
...1 minute chart, 15 minute chart...!? 
It's actually the same chart!!!:eek:... Like I said... Fractal Geometry messing with your head!