Do you see patterns in Random Walks?

Well if the above post is true I like this kind of math the company uses (from a filing):

"The Company reported a net loss of $991,215 ($0.00 per share) for the three months ended June 30, 2011"

Seems they have so many shares outstanding (262,309,314 wowwee) it makes the loss, per share, disappear when divided into loss amount.

:D
 
Noun 1. qat - the leaves of the shrub Catha edulis which are chewed like tobacco or used to make tea; has the effect of a euphoric stimulant; "in Yemen kat is used daily by 85% of adults"

Sounds like it could be fun.
 
Quote from nfactorial:

We can track the flock's center of gravity with piece-wise interpolation.
However we'd still need to know when the synchronization is taking place. How would you go to measure that?

Can we assume that prices move exclusively when spontaneous synch occurs? We'd therefore interpolate price (or mean/pivot) and a threshold on the interpolator's derivative could tell whether we are in a flocking situation or not.
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I can't see how the interpolation would be of any use because it's dependent upon the the knots that you use, so that's the actual important part. However, I can see a few situations where this might be useful: 1) having a functional from makes it easy for numerical methods. 2) diurnal patterns are great for this. 3) events which aren't time based-- yield curve analysis and options analysis. 4) removing the AR component of the time series.
 
If every object in a collection of objects fails to have a certain property, then the probability that a random object chosen from the collection has that property is zero.

Turning this around, if the probability that the random object has the property is greater than zero, then this proves the existence of at least one object in the collection that has the property.

It doesn't matter if the probability is vanishingly small; any positive probability will do.
Similarly, showing that the probability is (strictly) less than 1 can be used to prove the existence of an object that does not satisfy the prescribed properties.

Another way to use the probabilistic method is by calculating the expected value of some random variable. If it can be shown that the random variable can take on a value less than the expected value, this proves that the random variable can also take on some value greater than the expected value.

:p
 
Quote from ronblack:

Next thing you know is some computer monitoring you walking in a mall and you being arrested because of a deviation from average herd behavior.
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happens to me every weekend.

LOL:p
 
Those of you who insist that there are no patterns in the market and price action is random, how to you explain the recent performance of this blogger who is using simple patterns?

On 09/30/2011 he showed a price pattern in QQQ and he gave a down target of 5%. The target was hit two days after the call.

After the close of 10/03/2011 (on the day before yesterday) he showed two QQQ patterns and based on those and some other information from an indicator he called a positive close. Given that the market was down all day I thought that this time around he got it wrong but we had this late rally and rebound and his call was on the spot once more.

What do you say?
 
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