Do you see patterns in Random Walks?

Quote from zedDoubleNaught:

Is there any research or theories on the adoption rate of jumping on to the pattern? Or, the rate at which the flock wholly turns left, from the earliest left turners to the last few? Surely, they don't all do it exactly at the same time, there is probably some distribution curve to describe it.
Example, birds are too fast for me, but I saw on Planet Earth, in E Africa they have a trick of 3-4 men walking calmly straight towards a pride of lions after they catch something. First, one lion gets spooked and runs away, then 2, then a bunch, then a declining amount til the last one runs away.
I don't know, but when I watch tick data, it looks like logit curves but flipped around the x and y axes. Maybe this reflects an adoption rate, or a CDF of the adoption rate distribution curve.
More...

An interesting observation. I would suggest looking at the tick data in a raster (much like your TV screen) way stacking periods of tape on top of each other rather than following each other. This technique instantly will show you flocks.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

At the risk of disappointing you I think that your example (hypothesis) is too literal. I would stay away from the "reasoning" behind the chart patterns; it's a bit of a stretch to me.
More...

MAESTRO, what choice do I have? Somebody in this thread mentioned that the majority of us look at charts. Most lose, someone may argue. Fine. My goal is to become one of the few that manage to profit from chart patterns.

The logic behind certain moves I find quite reasonable. I used to think of trading the market as surfing the ocean waves. It feels more like a bull riding now. All it is trying to do is to shake me off. And that's when I happen to be on the right side. And, of course, when I'm on the wrong side, it's just trying to kill me.

You may have indeed discovered something fundamental. I hope you will continue to speak the language I can understand so that certain things become crystal clear.

In terms of trading, whatever the method you have developed it will still follow a pattern. And thus you will become visible too. So unless you are a giant monster who moves the market, you and me just some meat for the sharks to feed on.

I like popular science. When something complex is explained clearly in a way I can understand it makes my mind unfold. It feels very good. I also feel enlightened. So if there is something here that is the law of nature let's study to it in order to continue to survive and prosper!

Cheers,

rossky
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

An interesting observation. I would suggest looking at the tick data in a raster (much like your TV screen) way stacking periods of tape on top of each other rather than following each other. This technique instantly will show you flocks.
More...

I'm having trouble grasping what you mean here. Are you suggesting some sort of table format rather than a left to right chart?
 
Quote from GoldStandard:

I'm having trouble grasping what you mean here. Are you suggesting some sort of table format rather than a left to right chart?
More...
Sounds like market profile to me.
 
Quote from Whynot:

It's the bird with the most money who changes the direction of price, not the flock or it's psychological makeup. Hence the folly of technical analysis.
More...
The folly is believing the bird with the most money can't be spotted - at least some of the time.
 
Think about applause in a large crowd. At what point is it obvious that this event (applause) is happening? From a single persons perspective how so you know when to start and stop? How would you measure this mathematically? How does this relate to the markets? Have you ever been that jackass that starts clapping and nobody or very few people around you clap with you? If think about these things and write everything down it should help. I can't speak for maestro but I do believe this is relevant
 
Quote from phattails:

Think about applause in a large crowd. At what point is it obvious that this event (applause) is happening? From a single persons perspective how so you know when to start and stop? How would you measure this mathematically? How does this relate to the markets? Have you ever been that jackass that starts clapping and nobody or very few people around you clap with you? If think about these things and write everything down it should help. I can't speak for maestro but I do believe this is relevant
More...

A very good example. Also, once you realized how to present market data properly it is very easy to see those sync behaviors and spot flocks. Look at the image attached.

Cheers,
MAESTRO
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top