why not?
Do you need to trade more when you have a positive expectancy?
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
stop right here > you need to define when to trade and when to not trade.
right now it's like you have been dropped in a forest and all the trees look the same. you have to get yourself to a logging trail and gain some perspective.
2 ways to trade short term or day trading
reversion to the mean < this requires a lot of work with math to time properly. not easy to do but the benefits are positive slippage on entry. some commercials trade this way.
short term momentum < jumping on a moving train, have to be fast it will run off and leave you. and don't stay on too long of they will kick you off the train.
Everything in between is a mine field you should stay out of. more than 50-80% of the 24 hour session is just flipping noise to avoid and stay away from. problem is your lost and don't know where your at.
some of the best things ever is standard deviations, efficiency ratios, smoothing constants, price bands, price channels, pivot points, fib ratios, historic highs and lows, value areas and many non indicator price only based patterns etc. you have to build a combination toolbox thats your go to, for identifying where your at. otherwise your lost chasing every blip that comes along.
right now it's like you have been dropped in a forest and all the trees look the same. you have to get yourself to a logging trail and gain some perspective.
2 ways to trade short term or day trading
reversion to the mean < this requires a lot of work with math to time properly. not easy to do but the benefits are positive slippage on entry. some commercials trade this way.
short term momentum < jumping on a moving train, have to be fast it will run off and leave you. and don't stay on too long of they will kick you off the train.
Everything in between is a mine field you should stay out of. more than 50-80% of the 24 hour session is just flipping noise to avoid and stay away from. problem is your lost and don't know where your at.
some of the best things ever is standard deviations, efficiency ratios, smoothing constants, price bands, price channels, pivot points, fib ratios, historic highs and lows, value areas and many non indicator price only based patterns etc. you have to build a combination toolbox thats your go to, for identifying where your at. otherwise your lost chasing every blip that comes along.
This entire thread is HOGWASH and retarded.
ALL of your trades should have been distilled in your brain to be better than 50-50 odds of success.... PLUS have a positive risk/reward probability.
A trade with "negative expectancy" would be "shorting upside breakout in bull market". You research the occurrences and see that play has "negative expectancy" and therfore a dumb thing to do. So... DON'T DO IT!
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Scat,
I do not look at it on single trade. To build a positive expectancy requires a proper sample size. The fact that averages play a major role in the formula for calculation I am sure you can agree.
So you do not throw out the baby with the bath water as I am questioning that many negative expectancy systems can become positive expectancy from WHEN you trade them or as another poster stated how you apply trade-size.
The changing character of the market causes negative to be positive and vice versa...its all up to your sample size.
ES
I do not look at it on single trade. To build a positive expectancy requires a proper sample size. The fact that averages play a major role in the formula for calculation I am sure you can agree.
So you do not throw out the baby with the bath water as I am questioning that many negative expectancy systems can become positive expectancy from WHEN you trade them or as another poster stated how you apply trade-size.
The changing character of the market causes negative to be positive and vice versa...its all up to your sample size.
ES
TOTAL HOGWASH, MICHAEL. Trade size has nothing to do with it. Where did you get such notions?
Dang. Wish I knew what that means. ??
Scat,
I have reviewed your last 10 or 15 posts that are replying with a quote from me? Do you and I have something to talk face-to-face about?
Don't get me wrong...I love the lively debate. But really?
It's like for the first time in my life I actually have gained some control over my trading and instead of a congrats from a friend I feel I should place you on ignore.
ES
I have reviewed your last 10 or 15 posts that are replying with a quote from me? Do you and I have something to talk face-to-face about?
Don't get me wrong...I love the lively debate. But really?
It's like for the first time in my life I actually have gained some control over my trading and instead of a congrats from a friend I feel I should place you on ignore.
ES
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Not at all.
You seem to have acquired some/several/many "off-the-mark" notions about taking money from the markets. I'm just trying to nudge you elsewhere... that is, dispell your false notions. (You're not alone in your search.)
A famous Mr. Spock quote.... "When all other alternatives have been eliminated, what remains... however improbable... must be the truth".