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Do you catch tops and bottoms?
- Thread starter DisciplinedHedg
- Start date
Instead of picking the exact day of a top or bottom, I make bets about the general time frame. Like what the DOW, QQQ are doing right now, and buying puts a few months out.
The first rule of trading I have is "what is a great and compelling reason to put on the trade." Saying, I hope this is the top, or I think I'll make some money.....those statements will bankrupt me. Here are my reasons why I think this DOW 9,000 area is conter trend rally top looking out the next few months:
Very bullish VIX chart pattern with positive and rising momentum. Likewise with the VXN.
Newsletter writer sentiment wildly bullish (thus going the other way).
At least a 500 point decline in the DOW over the last 3 years within 2-3 months when it has a high RSI like it does now.
Weak seasonality patterns May-Oct.
Speculative excess is coming back.
The first rule of trading I have is "what is a great and compelling reason to put on the trade." Saying, I hope this is the top, or I think I'll make some money.....those statements will bankrupt me. Here are my reasons why I think this DOW 9,000 area is conter trend rally top looking out the next few months:
Very bullish VIX chart pattern with positive and rising momentum. Likewise with the VXN.
Newsletter writer sentiment wildly bullish (thus going the other way).
At least a 500 point decline in the DOW over the last 3 years within 2-3 months when it has a high RSI like it does now.
Weak seasonality patterns May-Oct.
Speculative excess is coming back.
Picking tops and bottoms is a tough way to making a living.
Quote from DisciplinedHedg:
The assumption in his example is that that was the bottom. So obviously the anticipatory trader is going to look much more appealing than the confirmation trader.
However, you can use the exact opposite example. Lets say it was just a bounce, and the downtrend continued. Then the anticipatory trader would get stopped out, and the confirmation trader would've looked like the "smart one."
The only true way to know which trader is successful would be over the long term. Are the big wins that the anticipatory trader makes enough to cover his frequent stop losses since he is fighting the trend? Or does the confirmation trader come out ahead over time because he is using safer entries even though he is making less?
That is still the question...
One of the halmarks of anticipatory traders is that they do NOT exit on stops.
Stops are used in trading for protection and not as a trading strategy.
If you enter any move, you always anticipate having to take profits and continue your trading in subsequent market moves.
By having an anticipatory approach to trading, you have all possibilities covered at all times.
What I mean is that when a trader enters a trade they do so because of X (may be fibonacci, elliott, moon cycle, S/R, MA, MACD, etc.....). So when they go long they are signalling that due to X they believe (or forecast, or think or hope, etc....) that the price will go up.
And when a trader goes short they are basically saying that due to X (whatever it is for them) they believe (or forecast, or think or hope, etc....) that the price will go down.
So by that definition, we can say that whenever a trader goes long, they are in effect "picking" a bottom; and whenever a trader goes short, they are in effect "picking" a top. Making the whole question a moot one.
But in the end this is totally not the important thing to focus on in trading as it is not among the defining variables in success.
And when a trader goes short they are basically saying that due to X (whatever it is for them) they believe (or forecast, or think or hope, etc....) that the price will go down.
So by that definition, we can say that whenever a trader goes long, they are in effect "picking" a bottom; and whenever a trader goes short, they are in effect "picking" a top. Making the whole question a moot one.
But in the end this is totally not the important thing to focus on in trading as it is not among the defining variables in success.